North American Potash Inventory Continues To Decline
Now only 25% above 5 year average with the monthly production only off 3% from prior month. If this trend continues, POT might actually emerge from its current rut. Either that or something else positive that we are not expecting.
Looking through rose glasses when we say that the Inventory is only 25% HIGHER than the 5 year average.
I know this is an improvemnt since beginning of year, but not a large one.
I would get back into this stock when I see operating rates of at least 85% (Potash projection is at 75%- 9 million tonnes sold versus over 12 million operating capacity) and net sales of poatsh at prices close to $500.
Otherwise, any increase in sales this year from last year is being offset by the lower prices.
Ralph, what do you make of Eurochem's decision to develop potash big time at two Russian sites? They said that regardless of whether they ultimately join the BPC joint marketing entity they will be disciplined about pricing. Curious whether you think this will deter BPC re Jansen as if they already are likely to throw in the towel.