Baumgartner is reportedly being held by the Belarusian Investigative Committee on suspicion of abusing his position and official powers according to RIA Novosti news agency. What he was doing in Belarus is anybody's guess. Hard to see how this will lead to any happy talk between the 2 companies.
It will just be a matter of time before the Russians detain a Belarusian. Russians do not play nice.
The ruse to deter BHP Billiton did not work. Maybe plan B is to get the cartel up and running again.
I disagree. Uralkali did not bluff. There was no ruse. Their move did work insofar as BHP has deferred consideration of Jansen by at least 5 years. Instead of tit for tat, the Russians are more likely to put the squeeze on Belarus financially and economically where Belarus is weak. Belarus now says they will hold Baumgertner as a prisoner for 60 days. We will see whether he will remain in jail for that long. The cartel is finished but that does not mean that control of the Belarus potash entity will remain outside the control of Uralkali and therefore Russia.
Copy paste from Reuters
"Uralkali representative Alexander Babinski told Reuters that Baumgertner, who is also a supervisory board member at the BPC, had been in Minsk at the invitation of Prime Minister Mikhail Myasnikovich. "He met with him, and after the meeting he was detained at the airport," he said."
POT was at $38 when Uralkali pulled it's stunt. Would it be fair to think Uralkali's attempts to renegotiate it's way back into the Cartel would spring POT back to $40? This could be violent move up thanks to all the shorties.
I wish it could happen but most likely it won't. The reason is that after a massive selloff like the one which caused the share price of POT to plummet, you now have huge overhead resistance involving millions of shares which will be sold into any rally, just like today. Over time, it might recover to where it was but that would probably require additional catalysts to make it happen.
I agree. Although I do hold POT it seems a stretch to see how this action will help the price of potash in the short term. However, from a longer term perspective the Belarusian "FBI" is also seeking to arrest another four officials including Oleg Petrov, the Uralkali director of sales. Potash fertilizer is a key foreign currency earner for Balarus. Maybe they think that Uralkali will return to the table under new management. Recall, in the past they have discussed reorganizing the cartel in Switzerland to allow greater access to funding and avoiding the sanctions impoed on Belarus. We'll see.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Perhaps one reason why things are jumping today is that Uralkali was soon expected to undertake talks with clients on next year's supply contracts which may be a little difficult to do when your CEO is in jail in Minsk and Interpol might soon be looking for Uralkali's director of marketing and sales, Oleg Petrov as well as other key Uralkali employees. In the meantime, by its own admission, Belaruskali is not marketing anything right now bereft as it is of a supply chain. Assuming that the market is now beginning to doubt what these two former BPC members are capable of going forward, perhaps the adverse pricing adjustments currently baked in are now much less likely.