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Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. Message Board

  • valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Oct 11, 2013 7:53 AM Flag

    surprised by early muted response to profit warning

    I'm surprised by light volume and pps staying above $31 this am.

    One way to gauge how close to a bottom a stock is by seeing how it reacts to bad news.

    If not major sell-off, then could be close to bottom.

    Personally, I am surprised at the magnitude of the miss based on recent presentation given at end of September, just 1 week before end of quarter. Mgmt was pretty optimistic on things.



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    • a 1 percent drop was not bad considering the magnitude of the miss.

      IMO, the dividend puts a floor on the price, assuming mgmt reaffirms confidence in maintaining it at current levels.

      Cashflow will be key metric to see how well dividend can be supported. Usually companies have a cap on percentage of operating cashflow they are willing to pay out.

      On Sept 24th (6 days before end of Q) they were confident.

      Quoting mgmt from Sept 24th conference "...Summing up here, CapEx running down at a pretty good level, means more cash flow for shareholders. We have put a premium on dividend enhancement and I think that you can continue to expect dividend growth probably at a less robust rate, but continuing at a good payback for shareholders, we see our yields in pretty good shape..."



      Sentiment: Hold

    • yeah. i think the action yesterday was insiders ahead of this news... with the tumult in the industry, not a huge surprise... though selling may accelerate... if not, this stock will prove to be a good investment...

27.33+0.15(+0.55%)Aug 3 4:05 PMEDT