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Herbalife Ltd. Message Board

  • kevin.grygiel kevin.grygiel Feb 2, 2013 12:16 AM Flag

    Serious replies only please, no trolls....

    When do you think this stock will go to:

    a) sub $5.00
    b) zero

    Serious replies only please. I don't want this to be a groundless bashing post, so please no one say stupid garbage like zero next week, because that is ridiculous. I'll go first.

    a) I think there will be an announcement from the FTC within 2-3 weeks, so we should see sub $5.00 relatively soon in like 2-4 weeks.

    b) zero is much harder to predict because HLF has a lot of overseas sales. The stock might get delisted because its a pyramid scheme and might get moved to another exchange where such action is not as likely. I think realistically after the FTC takes action it will be hard for HLF to do business anywhere, supply chains might be disrupted. I would say HLF zero in something like 6-24 months.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • Since you asked I'll say $50 in 3 weeks time. That's before April options expiration.

    • Oops they've just went after Hitech Fortune but it's cost structure is like 70-80% based on recruiting costs so it's obvious. Hard to do business? How many distributors overseas would care about FTC or the stock price of HLF??? This is the Harvard perspective of Billy Boi. Bash the stock price go down, FTC take actions, people stop doing business, we win. Maybe one in a hundred thousand went to Harvard so maybe one in a hundred thousand will stop doing business with Herbalife. This is very scary indeed.

    • Hard to get a serious reply to an incredibly stupid question. It is mazing to me that shorts are willing to bet everything that the FTC will shut HLF down. That's your thesis? lol. The FTC has reviewed several times and cleared them. What's different now?

    • HLF will never go to zero, just as Tupperware and Avon never went to zero. However, the stock will never go to the moon, either. It has now been stigmatized with all of this overblown "SEC" hot air.
      HLF is now a day-trading stock, and is trying to seek a new range..I think it will settle into something like a high 20's low 30's range for many, many weeks. We shall see.

    • The volatility in this stock can move the share price wildly in both directions. If the FTC takes action, it would not be surprising to see it at least in the teens. If positive news surfaces, it's not out of the realm of possibilities that a short squeeze could occurr, driving the stock much higher. When investors are so self assured about a one directional movement like your post implies, it gets me concerned from a contrarian perspective.

      I guess I am just saying that to ignore all the possibility of a downside to the short bet is risky if all one can think about is that there is only an upside. With a stock this driven by news events, it would be highly likely to see it wildly swing in either direction, not just one direction. I wish I could be as certain as many on this board as to the direction and timing, but the hedge funds involved and less than transparent undercurrent on Wall Street tends to frequently take people by surprise.

    • I don't think it will be as fast as you guess. Possible but unlikely. I actually believe it will go to the 40's briefly again on favorable news giving shorts a better entry point. I think it will be in the teens by July and in the $5 range at Christmas. If the FTC says something negative about HLF in the next 2-3 weeks I would be very surprised. I say it takes longer to play out.

    • The FTC will clear HLF period, ackman is dead wrong about his assertion I can guarantee you that, I am willing to bet as a matter of fact I sold every other stock I own and put all my saving in HLF because I will make three times more before 2013 ends. I am all in baby!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

61.95+2.53(+4.26%)May 24 4:02 PMEDT