Shorts keep saying that Ackman is still in the green on HLF and that is true, but they are missing the real point. Ackman and his Fund Pershing Square have already basically given their shareholders their gains ( on paper )by reporting them for end of year. My point is, as an investor in Pershing Square and looking at your funds returns, you NOW need to look at what are the gains/loses YTD. If HLF moves into the $44 - $45 area Pershing Square investors will begin LEAVING the fold.
Pressure is mounting folks and the top is going to blow. I wouldn't want to be a short when that happens.
Ackmans problem is the size of his position. That will be his downfall. When this thing runs higher as it is now with Icahn buying and the company buying back shares, Ackman will not be able to cover his short fast enough. He is in a very bad position right now.
My only fear is that they won't be able to take this above $52or so and put him in the read. By the time Carl is done buying this should be close to $50 but then the company will have to jump in with their buyback and I believe there needs to be say a 50% LBO for $75 or so. That would cause an incredible spike. Also, watch for tons of options being purchased way out of the money. If you see this than a buyout will happen and most of those calls will not be covered, imo, and the option writers will have to enter the short squeeze to get those shares at market. jmho
I agree that Icahn alone won't be able to take this above $50. I think he has some extra fire power through " friends " who will enter the fray. I think the company will also jump in and buyback additional shares and take them out of the float. Reducing the float is key to forcing Ackmans hand.