Isn't that the same number Tim Ramey of DA Davidson used as a buyback number. Is it possible HLF is negotiating with Icahn to borrow 2 billion to remove a boatload from the float further putting pressure on Ackman and other shorts. If you take 25% of the stock out of the float, Ackman can LIE all he wants about being in the drivers seat now, he STILL has 14 million shares give or take subject to being PULLED or that he will have to cover.
I find it almost comical that those who have been on the wrong side of this trade could possibly claim that Ackman covering 40% of his short is now a positive for him. Earth to all you lemmings, it just means that he has REDUCED his exposure for further loses by 40% nothing more.
If we get the news that many of us think is coming with great quarterly earnings and a run starts and we hit $100 that is ANOTHER $430 MILLION loss on Ackmans short position. If HLF does a 2 billion dollar buyback, HOW does Ackman find the shares to cover? Seems there are a lot of clueless people or just the same LIARS we have had all year.
We heard all these bashers and all their sky is falling scenarios since the mid $30 and look where we are. Hold on longs, Ackman is throwing in the towel but trying to mitigate the losses HE KNOWS are coming by lying. He is throwing his fellow shorts under the bus. Welcome to his world shorts, he doesn't care about you.
Flutie, this would be the ideal situation for Icahn to loan money to HLF so it can buyback $2B worth of stock. Icahn is worth 20B and I imagine he would have no problem raising 2B out of his own pocket if he so desires. The question is if Icahn is willing to make such a large investment in HLF? One could argue that he could help push up pps to 100 plus with a 2B loan and then liquidate some of his 17% stake for a monster profits.
I wonder what Icahn's long and short term plans are for HLF. Sooner or later he will sell his stake. The question is when.
He has run NFLW from $60 to a five bagger and counting... but it would be out of his practice to be the lender for a buyback plan with the reality that hlf can do a structured 5-10 yr financing in the mid single digits right now.
Starting to feel a little nervous, eh? Your rant is excruciatingly long.
For you longs, here's a review to understand why your time is almost up:
1.) a short squeeze is no longer possible. All longs that jumped on for that reason now have no basis to stay (including Soros)
2.) Ackman shorted this company because he realized that a pyramid structured company (legal or illegal) can not continue to pump up earnings at the rate HLF has claimed it has ( possibly rigged accounting, soon to be seen). The pyramid will collapse. His analysis spotted this with HLF but the inevitable collapse of HLF has been delayed by a clash of the titan billionaires.
3.) Even though the government moves slowly ( and now not at all), it will eventually rule against HLF.
4.) Carl Icahn, Warren Buffet, and Soros have publicly commented that the market has peaked. Soros has even bought a large put position on the SP500 ( and probably on HLF to lock in his gains, Icahn's probably done the same). Good luck trying to outwit those 3.
5.) If you are trying to base your long position on fundamentals and say the stock is going to $90, then the earnings need to increase more than 30% over the last quarter - not possible.
Nervous - not at all. I think Ackman conceding defeat is a positive thing for HLF and longs. I will refute each of your points.
1. Short squeeze will continue in my opinion. The longs who jumped in solely for an Ackman squeeze may jump ship and that's fine. There are still plenty of shorts that are on the Ackman train. Sooner or later, these shorts will cover as they have been all year and allowing pps to increase from mid twenties to mid 70's.
2. If Ackman shorted this company because he believes it to be a pyramid scheme, why not go after NUS, USNA and every other publicly traded MLM. If one is a pyramid scheme as people claim, then all or most of them should be too.
3. Goverment has yet to rule against HLF for the past 30 years. What makes you think that it is going to take action now and try to shut down a 7B company other than having a renowned market manipulating hedge fund manager making false claims with an endless allegedly false publicity on the company? Furthermore, what makes you think the government will find anything on HLF to begin with.
Don't you think that Icahn, Soros, Siritz, Perry Capital, and all the other billionaire big boys did their due diligence and determined that HLF is not a pyramid scheme before investing hundreds of millions of dollars into the company.
Icahn even acknowledged that he spoke to a well know consumer advocate lawyer and he confirmed that HLF is NOT a scam.
4. My end of the year price target is 90-100 based on earnings, potential buyback, positive news about audit, shorts covering and momentum. Forget Ackman potential squeeze. That's just a bonus. I could be dead wrong just like everyone short and long on this board and if so, then so be it. It's just my opinion.
Greg's comments are all factual, your's is the rant, uniformed and wrong on every point (again). Shorthand:
1. Ackman is still short 15,000,000 shares. 15% of outstandings at 6/30 and call it 1/3 of tradable float ex icahn and Stiritz and insiders. Your "impossible" and "no longer possible" to squeeze comments are ridiculous and desire the ire of the board you bring on yourself.
2. Ackman is no Titan -- you and he are a riot to think so. Rigged accounting? did you see kpmg's 8k? Would pwc be signing off on Q reports? They would have already resigned and filed accounting dispites on 8k but see none after almost 6 months auditing. About the pyramid collapsing, show us where there is an uncollectible debit on the balance sheet. There is no fraud here whether you and naysayers over the last 20 years like it or not.
3. See last sentence of #2 above.
4. Your comments make it obvious you are clueless about the world of hedge funds. They and every manager of hedge and mutual funds will tell you it was easier to find cheap stocks 3-4 years ago. The market has about doubled since and so "the market" is not so cheap. Every one you mentioned is still decisively net long -- and even in the public comments you cited (incompletely) each of them referecned that ithey are still finding things to own but have hedged their view of the broad market's potential pullback with offset hedges. We are currently only 60% net long after being up over 60% ytd. Duh... that is what hedge fund managers do when they have already made the year. Next lesson: roughly 2/3s of hedge funds have returns below 5% ytd, even though the broad market is up 4x that! Guess why the market is going higher into EOY -- if you have any idea how mgmt fees/incentive comp works for hedge funds.
5. Your 5th point is lame. HLF is growing revs and ebitda almost twice the sp500 yet trades at market multiple. This stock is going higher without Bill's "pillar" stupidity, the 2B buyback will be rocket fuel.
It appears that you're the nervous one, Inhuman ! You use that word rants a lot to desrcibe other people's comments, but it is you, SingLying and Tex_Swarmi that are the losers on the rants !
Why don't the three of you get a room for a weekend?
You all seem to be uptight and frustrated!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It seems it is you who is nervous ihummunua. I have gains exceeding 100%, you are under water and your boy Ackman is at a loss to the tune of 500 MILLION. You are laughable and you are doing nothing more than REPEATING the same unfounded garbage we heard back in the $30's. I repeat, back in the 30's and we at or near $70. FACT
There are STILL 25 million shares short, apparently you aren't real good at math. A short squeeze is most definitely in play. Seems that is your new talking point but let's be clear BASHER, I'm not here for the squeeze, I'm here for the fundamentals and I have repeated as such for months.
We continue to hear about you people repeating Ackmans pyramid scheme thesis as if you don't have your own talking points. AGAIN I repeat I am up 100%, you and Ackman are under water so I guess that makes you WRONG again. Ackman is throwing in the towel so that means he is throwing you under the bus while he covers his losing position.
Soros runs a Hedge fun, do I have to school you on the properties of how a hedge fun is run. Soros is short the markets as a whole and he has chosen a few WINNERS on the other side as a hedge. Google and Apple are a couple of his other longs along with HLF.
As far as the fundamentals go, you once again don't seem to understand math. Just to be on par with the S & P HLF should be trading at $85, HLF is growing at OVER twice the rate of the S&P so we should have a higher valuation. A big buy back and increased earnings will increase the share price.
Thanks for bringing up fundamentals and valuation as it shows just how IGNORANT you are on the subject. Class over for now.
The only thing that has changed in my opinion is Ackman has admitted he is nervous.This is still HLF expect the unexpected and the shorties will continue to lie and manipulate.
Sentiment: Strong Buy