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  • therealtyagent therealtyagent Feb 28, 2006 4:24 PM Flag

    can somebody put this in plain english:

    Am I reading the release right and the stock information on yahoo?:

    Last year EPS were 48 cents.

    This year they are expected to be .24 to .30 or roughly half? (if everything goes well).

    Did I get that right? if so... wow.

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    • Expectations for the First Quarter 2006:

      -- First quarter revenue is expected to be between $25.5 million and
      $26.0 million.
      -- Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $3.0 million and $3.5
      million.
      -- Net income is expected to be between $0.03 and $0.04 per diluted
      share. The estimated net income per diluted share includes the estimated
      impact of expensing stock options under FAS 123R of approximately $0.03.

      Expectations for the Full Year 2006:

      -- Full year revenue is expected to be between $105.0 million and $115.0
      million.
      -- Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $18 million and $20 million.
      -- Net income is expected to be between $0.24 and $0.30 per diluted
      share. The estimated net income per diluted share includes the estimated
      impact of expensing stock options under FAS 123R of approximately $0.12.

      First, assuming these "forward-looking" statements represent the best case, the stock closed at 45x forecasted 2006 eps.

      Second, the national trend released this week for residential home sales is hardly supportive of these expectations. Assuming attrition rate has been ignored, and the most likely direction of housing activity, I would expect a modest p/e of approx. 20 on management's best number, which does cut the price of the stock to 20 x .30 = $ 6.00.

 
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