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Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. Message Board

  • onan_2004 onan_2004 May 18, 2006 12:52 PM Flag

    What is happening with AAV?

    It's never been up since i bought it (may 11)!

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    • With regard to the weather-related delays in the capital expenditure program:

      - The majority of Esprit's operations are located in central and
      southern Alberta which experienced unusual amounts of rain throughout
      the summer months, including record rainfalls in June as well as
      unusually high levels of precipitation through the third quarter and
      into September;

      - Wet field conditions have prevented Esprit from drilling the 34 well
      Second White Specks program at Berry for over three months. The
      first well in this program was spudded today. The entire drilling
      program is expected to be completed by the end of the year, although
      only a minor amount of production will be on-stream by year end;

      - Soggy field conditions have also delayed the 13 well tie-in program at
      Olds for three months. This program is now expected to get underway
      next week and be completed by the end of November;

      - Esprit's 5 well drilling program in western Saskatchewan has also been
      delayed for about two months but is expected to get underway in
      October.

    • The selling earlier was a continuation of last week's downdraft then the National Weather Service issued their hurricane forecast for the coming season. That sent oil up a few ticks but more to the point for AAV, natural gas futures finished up 5%. Natural gas prices are more vulnerable to a hurricane event in the gulf since we don't get much anywhere else.

    • onan 2004, I am curious as I am doing research, how did you happen to find this stock? I am researching how newsletters pump a stock just before it crashes..and while it has peaked, only to turn downward. I am just another investor who is looking for understanding. Any reply respectfully appreciated.
      eom

      • 4 Replies to mytrades2005
      • <<<I am researching how newsletters pump a stock just before it crashes..and while it has peaked, only to turn downward. I am just another investor who is looking for understanding. Any reply respectfully appreciated.>>>>



        If you are relatively new to AAV, look at the 2 year chart. Find out what happened the first 6 months of 2005 to cause that massive decline while most Canroys were going up.

        Then, when you have found the answer, ask yourself 2 things:

        Do I want to invest with this management?

        Should I own any stock Tobin Smith touts?

        There are around 35 Canroys, and AAV is in the third tier due to poor management, rising expenses, and the shareholder unfriendly terms of the management contract regarding compensation.

        To save you the trouble, I will tell you what happened.....Advantage management gets paid a bonus anytime the unit price plus the distribution results in a return above 8% per year. In late 2004, they were lagging, so, they announced a large increase in the distribution and also said hedges were in place to secure the distribution increase. They then banked a huge bonus.

        Once the bonus was safely in the bank, a few short months later, they cut the distribution which trashed the unit price from above $20 US to around $13 US.

        Wonder if Toby knows about this...I doubt it.

        If the Advantage/Ketch deal passes, I expect them to wait a couple of months and then cut the distribution, especially if natural gas prices remain weak.

        Since we are paying them hundreds of millions of dollars to cancel their "management contract", which has caused so many problems in the past, they can now cut the distribution and worry less about how it will affect their bonus.

        The only positive thing about a merger between these two trusts is that perhaps the Ketch managers who will join the team may be able to get some control over the old Advantage team, and build some credibility with the private investors and the institutions in Canada. The current Advantage management has zero credibility, for very good reason.

      • I bought this trust on a recommend from a friend, that was a no no using my rules for investing.( digest the info and pick your own stocks)It's only 20% my trusts, PTF 50% is my pick.

        This board can get negative.Enjoy the income.

        FS

      • I know you weren't addressing me- but I also had just recently found AAV- got in about 2 months ago for the first time- unfortunately in right around 19.50. I found it by doing a stock screening using size, price, and dividend payout criteria. The search turned up most of the other energy trusts as well, and I ended up here.

        I have no worries about AAV being down at my 1 year anniversary of owning.

        Hope someone noticed my post and looked into CNQ Friday- made a quick 5% on it getting in just over 49 and out at 51.6. If it nears 50 again, I'll pick it up again.

    • patience.

 
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