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Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. Message Board

  • marksm8100000 marksm8100000 Sep 22, 2006 6:34 PM Flag

    Is there a bottom to this stock?

    It seems that this stock has no bottom.It declines much more than other energy trusts. Do insiders know something we don't? The current yield on this stock is over 15%. Are they going to cut dividend?

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    • Usually when stocks tank, a mergers and aquisitions house takes a big position. Managment of this company is less than what the street apprecciates. Look for a takeover in the not too distant future. A new management team is in store.
      This one will be bought at bargain basement prices and the shareholders will bleed.
      In support of the HaHa conspiracy theory. Almost half of all Americans believe the November elections have more influence than market forces. For them, the plunge at the pump is about politics, not economics.

      Retired farmer Jim Mohr of Lexington, Ill., rattled off a tankful of reasons why pump prices may be falling, including the end of the summer travel season and the fact that no major hurricanes have disrupted Gulf of Mexico output.

      "But I think the big important reason is Republicans want to get elected," Mohr, 66, said while filling up for $2.17 a gallon. "They think getting the prices down is going to help get some more incumbents re-elected."

      According to a new Gallup poll, 42 percent of respondents agreed with the statement that the Bush administration "deliberately manipulated the price of gasoline so that it would decrease before this fall's elections." Fifty-three percent of those surveyed did not believe in this conspiracy theory, while 5 percent said they had no opinion.

      • 1 Reply to h47291l
      • Your so-called "Ha ha conspiracy" theory has been talked about for several months now, maybe over a year (well before it happened). I never believed it would actually come true, but it's amazing what a connected former oil man in the White House can do...especially when his family considers the Saudi prince their adopted son, and the family has connections with nearly every oil company in the country (if not world)

        hmmmm...coincidence huh?

    • IMHO. Don't expect a bottom until a least after 9/30/06, Hedge
      funds' managers sell their loses because this is when they
      get paid. It happens every year. Don't buy until after 4
      quarter starts.

    • Mr market knows the answer to your question. Mr Market is never wrong, well almost never. Do you average down or just look for a bottom?
      Pretty obvious the dividend will be cut. Don't know when, I'm not Mr Market.

    • The reason for AAV decline is quite simple. There is a glut of NG and prices are dropping like a rock. As the price of NG plunges so does the share price of NG stocks:).

      • 1 Reply to mikez1r
      • "There is a glut of NG and prices are dropping like a rock. As the price of NG plunges so does the share price of NG stocks:). "


        That doesn't explain why it's dropping much FASTER than NG does it? At that alone does not explain why all of the Canroy's (even PVX) are dropping. It's much bigger than that. Someone is liquidating and dumping shares rapidly here.

        The buying opportunity of a lifetime may be coming sometime in the next several weeks.

    • There is nothing wrong with any of the Canadian Royalty Oil and Gas Trusts. The problem is that one of the local Calgary Boys {BRIAN HUNTER" who wanted to become a Zillionair by trading natural gas futures helped his hedge fund {AMARANTH HRDGE FUND)lose over 6 Billion US Dollars in the past 10 days.This fund has been liquidating many of their stock holdings including Can Roy trusts as well as Goldcorp. Hopefully they finished their selling on Friday. I,ll bet that the 32 year futures trader will have to sell his Bently and Ferrari and might hae to walk.

      • 1 Reply to doubledown71161614
      • i keep reading listings that compare canroy's to stocks...? you folks understand some of the key differences, right?

        biggest difference: dilution

        canroys are constantly issuing ever more shares, therefore production or price of their commodities must increase in order to retain the dividend. in the case of declining commodity prices, canroy's get hit twice as hard. they have a natural attrition in cash flow/share, but it accelerates to the downside in these markets. whether aav will fall further, i don't know. jim rogers is saying buy ng... i'd take his word over nearly anyone's when it comes to commodities (although he blew it in soy beans recently). so maybe this is the bottom for aav, but also realize that at this point canroys have built in the idea that ng rallies into witner $8-9. if that doesn't happen, aav will head lower this winter, until it reaches a point where its assets are worth more than it's market cap and debt... (which is a tremendous advantage to holding canroy's vs. stocks. you'll get bought for what you have in the ground if your management fails to keep you afloat. no canroy will ever go bankrupt with energy at today's prices, even 50% lower and they stay afloat, albeit not well.)

    • There is nothing wrong with any of the Canadian Royalty Oil and Gas Trusts. The problem is that one of the local Calgary Boys {BRIAN HUNTER" who wanted to become a Zillionair by trading natural gas futures helped his hedge fund {AMARANTH HRDGE FUND)lose over 6 Billion US Dollars in the past 10 days.This fund has been liquidating many of their stock holdings including Can Roy trusts as well as Goldcorp. Hopefully they finished their selling on Friday. I,ll bet that the 32 year futures trader will have to sell his Bently and Ferrari and might hae to walk.

    • AAV seems expensive verses other Canroys
      AAV payout is 127% of cash flow. Average canroy is about 80%

      29% incease in operating costs vs last year
      gas production is down 11.9% from last year.

      look at peyto or vermillion with payouts under 50%. Yield not as good, but company more stable.

    • No expert here, but am heavily invested in this one. This NG stock moves tightly with NG prices and prices have historically risen to around $9.50 in 1st weeks of October. Then the move up begins in stock prices. As we move into winter it should rise quite rapidly to at least $17.50 (I hope!) This is lowest it's gone in 2 yrs and don't believe it will go lower. It's just following oil prices but is a different animal. Good Luck - I personally think this is a great buy right now and wish I would have know it would go so low (+ great dividend) The other trusts have a higher % of oil (this one is 75% NG - others around 30% NG) so this one reacts more radicly with NG prices.

    • It is very easy to understand. The stock price must go down so they (insider, broker, money manager etc) can acquire more shares. Get it.

    • Hope not as ex date is next week 9/27 .20/share. They announced the distribution on 9/5 and the stock was trading at $17.65. How low will it go?

 
AAV
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