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aTyr Pharma Inc. Message Board

  • stemcellstoday stemcellstoday Feb 4, 2011 1:06 AM Flag

    LIFE buying CEPH

    Check out the buzz on the CEPH message boards. CEPH is a coiled spring. A deal just might go though.

    Revascor (allogenic mesenchymal cells) PII results:
    - Reduced SEVERE adverse cardiac events from 93.3% to 44.4%.
    - Reduced MAJOR adverse cardiac events (cardiac death, heart attack, or coronary revascularization procedures) from 40% to 6.7%
    - Reduced DEATH from cardiac causes from 13.3% to 0%
    - Encompassing patents held by Mesoblast (MSB)

    Cephalon (CEPH):
    - Trading at 52-week low
    - 20% short interest and 123% institutional ownership!
    - RSI under 30
    - Price/Earnings 11.3 vs. 27.58 (industry avg)
    - Price/Book 1.81 vs. 3.4
    - Price/FreeCashflow 6.39 vs. 16.95

    - Owns 20% of MSB and holds exclusive licensing rights
    - MSB will vote on additonal rights to CEPH on Feb 9
    - New CEO on MSB BOD

    - Known for Provigil, Nuvigil and Treanda
    - 22 drugs in phase I to phase III
    - CEO died 5 months ago from leukemia
    - Memorial honoring CEPH CEO on Feb 1
    - PA Bio society renaming annual award after CEPH CEO Mar 16
    - Market cap 4.39B

    - Revenue 2.6B, strong cash flow, no debt
    - Forward P/E 7, Q Rev Growth 30%
    - CEPH earnings on Feb 10

    - Fear factors: death of CEO, fear of patent expiration (at least 2 years away)

    I'd say load the boat on the stock, but stay away from options as all the short interest indicates CEPH is being heavily manipulated. CEPH will likely be bought out once the MSB vote occurs and earnings are announced. Having looked closely at the technologies and trial results, MSB is going to be the first blockbuster stem cell company. Cardiac treatments will be first, but their cells work for a large variety of diseases. Since they are using allogenic cells which can be produced en masse at low cost, their margins will be incredible. The technology was developed at the Univ of Australia and MSB owns the exclusive patents. All of the other stem cell companies are years behind and their technologies and business models are very questionable. CEPH is perhaps THE most undervalued stock in the biotech industry right now.

    It's headed to 100+ and won't stay this low much longer!

    Spread the word and let's bring these amazing cures to market even faster!!

3.23+0.02(+0.62%)May 27 4:00 PMEDT