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Plum Creek Timber Co. Inc. Message Board

  • mm5002003 mm5002003 May 30, 2013 12:16 PM Flag

    agree, no news 11.5% drop when market @ new highs daily.

    any ideas, no news i see.

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    • Having sold my PCL between $52 and $54, I'm looking for the right time to get back in. I sold only because the yield had fallen substantially below what it was when I originally bought at $36. Interest rates are moving higher, and they're likely to continue to do so for a long time. The Fed can't continue 0% forever. Eventually, rates will move back up to their "normal" 5% level. Look what happened when Greenspan kept rates too low for too long. When rates were finally allowed to go back to a more "normal" level, we had a cataclysmic crash in housing and the whole economy. Bernanke lowered rates below the Greenspan level and held them there for a lot longer. IMO, he succeeded in creating a situation that is a whole lot worse than what we had in 2007. The meager housing recovery we're seeing now is built entirely on hot air. It is levitating on ridiculously low interest rates and nothing else. Too low for too long has become way too low for way too long. This entire market has been buoyed up by artificially low interest rates that are unsustainable. When PCL gets back down under $40, I'll take another look. In the meantime, I'm content to sit on the sidelines.

    • Agree with the below was primarily the big move in timber prices, although was a combination of factors and a pretty thinly traded. Was a buying opportunity for me. Housing starts still low by historic standards, paper products industry looks very healthy, pricing environment (despite the timber pull back) looks good in multiple verticals. Need to be patient here, prices and financial performance will flctuate, but the timber keeps growing at a good clip regardless...

    • I think it is due to the lumber futures dropping. The timber stocks and lumber futures have trended pretty well over the last oh 15 years or so. I am not talking on a daily basis. I am talking over a monthly to quarterly basis. This correction seems par for the course. I hope the post below is right that lumber is heading back up.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • It's overvalued. PE of almost 30.

    • Did they find a replacement for trees or something?