i have followed this stock for 3 yrs and one pattern has been consistently clear..It gets attacked by Seeking Alpha twice a year and rebounds back - and the price can remain irrational for far longer than shorts can carry it for
Should the stock be valued at $60 right now - of course. but it has consistently traded at 50-100% of intrinsic value due to the inability to borrow shares, the constant metrics (ie ROE, div Yld) that sites put out showing it ranked in the Top 5 of whatever group - and last, but certainly not least, a comatose shareholder base who love collecting the big dividend and will not sell until the trust expires.
Against all rationality - i would expect this stock to trade back towards $100 before it sees 75
You are correct when you say Seeking Alpha and others are the stupid players behind the fluctuation. The Trust will continue to exist and will pay the distributions so maybe there is a buying opportunity here.
spot on and its not unique to gni. crf, clm, and many other lps have a history of trading above rational levels all because of div yield. ive tried to short them and failed b/c of buyins so now i buy on the dips for short term gains.