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The Nasdaq OMX Group, Inc. Message Board

  • duedilgencethenaction duedilgencethenaction May 27, 2011 9:57 AM Flag

    Why NDAQ is worth at least 32

    Next year earnings of $2.77 makes this stock just about the least expensive both from the balance sheet and earnings perspectives.

    That trend is going to get better and better.

    And, Singapore is still looking to use its cash to buy another exchange. What a perfect match. Asia & USA!

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    • 1)Results for NDAQ can be volatile since it principally generates its revenues based on trading volumes of equities and derivatives. NDAQ pursues agressive expansion plans.
      NDAQ is considering a hostile takeover for NYSE Euronext, partnered
      with ICE to make an nsolicited bid for the
      big board. This adds to shortterm volatility, and at the same time a great
      longterm stability.

      2)NDAQ's total matched share volume (in cash equities segment) was 94.8 billion shares in the first quarter of 2011, compared with 93.1 billion shares in the fourth quarter of 2010,
      and 126.2 billion shares in the first quarter of 2010. Volume sligthly rose in its smaller European business versus last year.

      3) After rising about 5% in 2010, analysts expect total
      net revenues to increase about 10% in 2011.
      Trading volumes should stabilize and grow at 5-10% per year clip until 2014, and as usual, grow at double this rate in the second half of every year.

      4) The price performance in the second half of every "normal" year looks much better than the first half. This is a seasonal business and stock.
      This was true in 2005, 2006, 2007, and again in 2010. In these years, NDAQ price shot up more than 50% in second half, and corrects in the first half.
      I expect the same this year and next, hitting $42-48 in max. 18 months.

      5)This $26 price range is simply a good buying opportunity.

    • Sorry to tell you this but NDAQ will not be bought...no one wants a primarily cash equities exchange there is no money there. NDAQ will most likely whither on the vine unfortunately. They made their best effort to expand but it failed. Its a sad thing when the only hope of the company survival is being bought out.

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