Ummm, it gets better. This does not include any accretive distribution from the closing of the EP deal. I'm expecting at least one FY 2012 distribution to include significant additional distribution from the roll down of EP assets to KMP/KMR.
$4.98 is the guidance that Kinder-Morgan put out in their 11/28 press release of 2012 guidance.
One minor caveat; that is guidance for their FY 2012. The Q4 '12 distribution will be paid in Jan 2013.
Second minor caveat; the $4.98 is guidance for KMP, not KMR. Because KMR doesn't pay a dividend or distribution in cash, keep in mind a proud owner of one share of KMR will not end up at the end of FY 2012 with $4.98 in their pocket.
KMP's guidance for 2011 (again, including the Q4 distribution to be paid next January) is $4.60. That is a virtual lock...they could CUT their distribution by a penny and still make $4.60. No wonder they say they are likely to exceed guidance in 2011. Personally I expect they will pay $1.17 in Q4 (with $1.18 more likely than "only" $1.16).
Assuming they do NOT increase the dist. in January (hold at $1.16) they will go into 2012 at a run-rate of $4.64. The $4.98 guidance # is a 7.3% increase over that...certainly neither outlandish nor unprecedented. If they pay $1.17 in January, then $4.98 would "only" be a 6.4% increase in '12
The key thing to consider is KMP's track record of making their distribution guidance #s. Assuming they don't cut the dist. in January (so they will exceed their 2011 guidance), they will have at least met their own guidance in 11 of the past 12 years, missing once (by $0.02 in 2006), exceeding 5 times, and being bang on the other 5 times.
IMHO KMP is extremely likely to make their 2012 distribution guidance #s.
u own a fractional interest in the partnership whether they pay distribution or Not. Thus paying doesn't make any difference. The money is in your bank account or their bank account for you. Also i have not checked the dilution each year which must be subtracted from the "return".
Thus exxon paying a 3 percent dividend, you must add the percent of stock they bought back.
I'm happy owning either. Never been asked when spending money if it came from dividends, interest, capital gains, or distribution.