state, jp, ncsu, aosc, e., gs, peter, artist, vogue, less, finep, toon, gl, jr, chap, gro, hist, ssg, stg, fountain, seattle, teldar, richard, inspector, guy, fysh, bill, guy, lisa, ali, donk, roark, just, divy, clean, pjh, walt, azrt, ntm, kis, pt117, az and any other recent posters i missed, sorry
How do you rate the 2012 outlook, 1-great, 2 above average, 3 average, 4 poor, 5 failure. I give it a 1
Give it a 2, but conditional to a an upgrade to 1. I want more progress evidence of the Mariner and EPD ethane pipeline projects, for one, Shell’s ethane project announcement hopefully end of this month. I will see the rail spur progress end of this week, (this project was pushed back so many times – mostly environmental study and permitting). Not sure how Ohio Utica project work will progress. As far as the unit price, I think it is too high and would not buy at this point. Also want this local govt crap to come to some conclusion. There may be really super wet gas in these areas but E&P like RRC and MWE compressor station bull crap has got to go away.
Interesting thread.Since the object of investing in the market is to make money, the next step for all the participants to do is to evaluate their other portfolio holdings on the same basis and then compare them to their own evaluation of MWE and if they want to improve their portfolio performance (Make more money) eliminate 1 or more of their lagging evaluations and add to one or more of their leading performers.
I rated mwe projections for 2012 as a 1. My reasoning is the probability is high they will meet or exceed the top end of their 2012 dcf projections of $ 500 mm for 2012 (which is a 50% increase over 2011 results based on last 4 years history); plus they currently have $1 billion in liquidity with emg building out Utica in 2012 and most of 2013 In last 4 years (as far back as I went) mwe has exceeded beginning of year top of the range dcf projections in 3 of the 4 years or 75% of the time for an average around 5% overage. If they exceed their top end dcf projections by 5% for 2012 based on 96 mm units, mwe will get exceed a 1.35 coverage which is excellent in my view for a growing company
2008-exceeded top of range by $8 mm or 4%
March 3, 2008 forecast for 2008
For 2008, the Partnership is forecasting DCF allocable to common unitholders in a range of $170 million to $190 million
March 2, 2009 results for 2008
Distributable cash flow (DCF), of… $198.1 million for the year ended December 31, 2008
2009-under top of range by ($7.6) mm or (3.8%)
March 12 2009 forecast for 2009
For 2009, the Partnership forecasts DCF in a range of $160 million to $200 million
March 1, 2010 results for 2009
March 1, 2010 results for 2009
distributable cash flow (DCF), of …$192.4 million for the year ended December 31, 2009.
2010-exceeded top of range by $21.1 mm or 9.6%
March 1, 2010 forecast for 2010
For 2010, the Partnership forecasts DCF in a range of $180 million to $220 million
Feb 28 2011 results for 2010
distributable cash flow DCF of…. $241.1 million for the year ended December 31, 2010
2011-exceeded top of range by $22.8 mm or 7.4%
Feb 28, 2011 forecast for 2011
The Partnership increased its 2011 DCF forecast to a range of $260 million to $310 million
Feb 28, 2012 results for 2011
distributable cash flow (DCF), of…. $332.8 million for the year ended December 31, 2011
Feb 28, 2012 forecast for 2012
For 2012, the Partnership forecasts DCF in a range of $440 million to $500 million
Feb or March 2013
additional and last comments. My view of MWE is macro. This time last year, for those with a memory of my posts,I said I was surprised to see the NE,predominately marcellus supplying about 26% of profits. My more recent post was a cryptic SW=Liberty + NE. Looking at last years numbers of gas processed NE has passed Tx and OK or SW. As the entire midstream mlp group, and I have listened or read about 8 mlp's end of year and 2012 guidance reports,they are all moving up fee based activity. Additionally almost every mlp had put into place major projects that culminate in 2013-14. So if we can weather the sell in may and go away passed hurricaine season Oct. price disintegration possibility,and oil and gasoline destruction of economy we should enter the last quarter of year in good shape. Everybody should have all their allotment of shares then.Some other thoughts appear to be lost in that 2014 leaps are still reasonably priced- but so be it.
2 above average. I still don't have a good handle on what is happening in all the NE Shale areaa. Dry gas is stifled by price. Wet gas? Marcellus SW looks great. I have my money on the Utica, but I would like a little more clarity on what they are getting. I was surprised to see the proposed Harrison fractionation plant will be partially supplied with Marcellus gas. I would have thought if the Utica is as liquid rich as advertised this would be all Utica. Then there is the elephant in the room. Shell. I am just waiting to see if they plan to supply their own ethane to their fracker or buy a major part of it. The best I could get from the MWE Alpha earnings trancript MWE Management know as little as everyone but they suspect they are going it alone.
The only thing slowing down MWE is $ to fund the deals. But so far so good. They have done an awful lot. It was just in the winter of 2009 I first drove by the Houston plant. It was a cold snowy Saturday and construction was going ahead full blast. I am holding on to what I bought.
2012-2 above average
2013- 1 great
2014- 1 great.
By the end of 2013 and into 2014 MWE will be in a much larger boat than it is now. The potential will be larger than it is now and MWE will probably be in the midst of construction of probably another 5 to 10 processing plants and projects or maybe even more. I don't believe the bulk of MWE's growth is behind it. Paying for tha additional 49% Marcellus liberty growth going forward in addition to their own 51% share, and 70% of the newly started Utica growth phase will require even more capital than most realize. Hopefully interest rates remain low and gas liquids prices remain at appropriate levels for MWE and their customers to thrive.
I was surprised to learn from the CC transcript that the Southwest business unit, which includes the operations in Texas and Oklahoma contributed nearly 60% of total segment operating income in the 4th quarter and the full year.
That means to me that the Marcellus while being the major grower for MWE for the past few years it currently is still a small part of the entire MWE story with room for much more growth going forward
You really have to give MWE an "1" in 2011 nailing the Marcellus and entering the Utica in force. I was particularly impressed with Semple's comment in the CC that the very large 100,000 barrel/day fractionator at Harrison,Ohio, in the Utica would be base loaded from the Marcellus. This is real strategic thinking at its' best. Harrison will be able to pour recovered propane right into EPD's adjacent TEPPCO pipeline heading to New England and ethane in EPD's ATEX pipeline presumably in the same right of way heading South to Mont Belvieu. Another interesting aside was that Mariner East could take other NGLs besides ethane. I took this to mean that butanes, pentanes, etc could be exported,too. OK, that said, I think 2012 will be a "2" because MWE now has a long list of operating units to finish, processing contracts to sign, and operating personnel to hire and train. It will be a "consolidation" year in a way. IMO, 2013-2014 should be solid "1", breakout years for MWE. The election will be over, Shell will have picked its' new "Cracker" site, ethane will be flowing, railroad tankers will be moving daily, and the integrated Utica/Marcellus system will be functional.
My take is that it is a 2 for most of year and ends with a 1. I most reflect hach-, and if you read my posts recently it is all about the completetion of the 10-11 announced projects. Three or four projects are to be completed by third quarter of this year.Additionally four are to be completed by mid 2013.The flow of mlp,s in the May to Oct period will tell the tale. If oil stays above $98 WTI until Oct.it will be a good year for MWE.It is only as good pricewise as energy-interest rate-oil price. MWE does not function as an independent stock. Distributions make the stock-energy prices make the sector-interest rates-makes the 600K share interest.
MWE is positioned for a 1, but a lot is out of it's control for the first half of the year. No worse than a 2 for this year and definitley 1 over the next 24 months.
NGL prices are out of their control and temproarily, adversely affected by the turnarounds. But they expanded upon what EPD's Jim Teague said about demand coming back stronger in the 2nd half as crackers get built and chemical industry demand comes online
They did a good job of clarifying and their 3 pronged Ethane solution. Emphasizing Mariner West and EPD's Atex as the intial priorities.
Whatever we nail down the final unit count as, fact of the matter is we are looking at DCF in the area of $500 million in 2012 as opposed to a number in the low $300 millions in 2011. MWE has had a lot of growth the past 24 months. Distributions have kept up nicely and coverage hasn't been an issue.
I would think that Yield could be further compressed to a level of WPZ ~ 20 bps further.
The CC was a good listen/read. For Unitholders not familiar with the issues, it's 15 minutes of reading over the weekend well spent
5 stars and i agree on all points almost 100%. MWE i would rate the near term 1.5 to a 2 w/ mid to long term closer to a 1. looking for a solid up 2012 w/ possible split if 70 area is reached and held w/ an explosive 2013/14 if all expansions pan out the way they should. as mentioned the c/c was worth the time and i do plan on revisiting over the weekend.
just keep govt regulation at bay and i'm expecting MWE to be my top long term play.
spot on artist