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Hot Topic Inc. Message Board

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  • mawchek mawchek Nov 21, 2003 8:50 PM Flag

    Packed store

    I've been catching up on my reading here on the board and greatly enjoyed the discussion of entry points. I'm thinking right along the lines figgie initiated.

    Some of you might remember I used to document a similar exercise back in 2001/2002 during HOTT's frequent crashes. It was meant to calm the troups and poke the shorts in the eye for all their claims of doom. Bottom line, HOTT has a history of hair-raising drops, many in the 30-40% range. They can be scary, but those are the entry points you're looking for. And they are as predictable as the tide, followed by climbs to new heights.

    I sold a substantial part of my holdings a short while back at ~33 pre-split, convinced HOTT was wildly overvalued. I've shaken my head the whole time watching it climb to where it is today, waiting for that drop. While I admire the company (and thank Betsy for the wealth it created), I cannot in good conscience buy in at these prices. It would be counter-productive.

    FWIW, I'd begin buying under 23 and get quite aggressive under 19. In the meantime, there are better values to be had (but not necessarily better management teams and concepts).

    Mawchek