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Hot Topic Inc. Message Board

  • shorty_anf shorty_anf Jan 31, 2005 9:44 AM Flag

    It appears the price will go up forever

    Is there an end in sight?

    If it goes down, will it be a slow painful decline or a sudden drop. SSS should be interesting this month and the Q4 report even more interesting.

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    • "I strongly believe ANF is the best rtlr this country has seen since GPS hay days, with Coach a close second."

      You nust not have been watching CHS over the last seven years.

    • I'm simply not tuned in to the appropriate fashions enough to trust my judgement on ANF. It could be great investment, I just don't have a personal thesis for it. I don't feel I need to be as in tune with Hot Topic's market (or perhaps that's just a way of saying I feel more in tune with Hot Topic's market...).

      Good luck to you too.

    • Unlike academic ad nauseum discussions that can go on forever w/o a clear "winner" being declared, the mkt always serves as judge, jury and often swift executioner.

      I have traded HOTT for several yrs now and always on the long side, up until about 4mos ago.

      I strongly believe ANF is the best rtlr this country has seen since GPS hay days, with Coach a close second.

      ANF went from a high of $50 to $8 and took 5yrs to recover.

      HOTT is no ANF.

      Good Luck.

    • I'm long, though I have no specific reason to expect anything in particular this month or next month. However, to chime in on this bear discussion...

      >> A "growth story" prerequisite ...

      I disagree. A "growth story" definitely can see falling SSS. SSS is exactly the one statistic that can't always go up. Eventually store traffic is going to max out--even if that max is the investor's wildest dream of a packed store every second of every day. Right now management attributes falling SSS to the popularity of "clean and preppy". Whatever the reason, their market it isn't going away. I believe it's an ebb and tide.

      >> If HOTT were a private company and you owned 100% would you be growing locations at 15% this yr?

      Replicate a profitable model? Absolutely. Even if I agreed that HOTT was trading at too high a price, that says nothing about the profitability of opening a new store. Maybe public investors are paying too much for a piece of that (I don't personally think so right now), but management would be remiss to pass up the opportunity to expand--they're the only ones with access to that brand, infrastructure and business relationship network.

    • <<If HOTT were a private company and you owned 100% would you be growing locations at 15% this yr?>>

      No. I said they were currently priced as a high growth company, I didn't say they were. I also said the price would have to be cut in half from current levels before I'd consider buying.

      Sorry if I misread your post. You seem to be pointing out I'm wrong while agreeing with me.

    • My bet is that some people in the know have a good idea that SSS or sales overall are going to be better than expected and they are getting it cheap. IMHO.

    • OK, maybe not straight up, but what a huge move over the last week or so.

      Someone please speculate on what is causing this big move. Is is sustainable? I don't think so, but maybe there is some news floating around that I haven't heard.

      • 2 Replies to shorty_anf
      • HOTT reached it's all time high of $32.30 on Jan22/04, almost exactly 1yr ago.
        Looking at the teen rtl sector 1yr chart and ignoring P/E ratio - HOTT is a value play compared to AEOS,ANF,ARO,PSUN,URBN,BKE,GES,BEBE and not nearly as sick as WTSLA or CHIC.
        That said, declining SSS in HT where the concept cannot be radically changed for fear of losing the ever-declining core customer is called "being btwn a rock and a hard place."
        Torrid began as the store that fat goths could call their own and it didn't work. The goth look at Torrid is all but abandoned now and it is "conceptless" thus avoided in CC's if possible.
        Real estate commitments for both HT and Torrid march on - so the show must go on.
        This co is still very troubled and will continue to be.
        SSS should not carry alot of weight as it is January clearance.
        Q4 Earnings 3rd wk of Feb will be the biggie and could produce a special reserve chge for obso inventory as this is yr end.

        I am looking to short either before or after SSS announcement, but definitely prior to earnings announcemnt.

        Best of Luck.

      • last thing on dj is 1/21 bear upgrade and 1/27 zacks sell