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Hot Topic Inc. Message Board

  • mawchek mawchek Oct 24, 2000 8:07 PM Flag

    TA opinions on HOTT

    My professional training and personal
    inclinations are suited to a fundamental/quant approach to
    investments. I appreciate, however, some of the interesting
    observations of those practicing the fine art of technical
    analysis.

    I couldn't help but notice how flat HOTT's Yahoo
    chart line has been since the beginning of September as
    compared to the balance of the chart. It's positively
    unHott-like! Is there some significance to this from a
    chartist's perspective? I like to think of it as "building a
    base" (if I have the jargon right) for another upward
    move. Thanks for the
    opinions.

    Mawchek

    PS: Sorry, Deli, if I seem impatient for another leg
    up.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • to a discussion on the variables topic. Skafan,
      thanks for the response. I think the price of oil is
      more important in the equasion. I don't expect the fed
      to move on the rates till after Q4 and believe folks
      are getting comfortable with were they are
      now.Disposable income will have more to do with home heating
      fuel and gas priceing . We know the lg suppliers can't
      keep the price/bbl up indefinetly primarily because of
      unwanted competion from the small outfits. If oil comes
      down retail will do better. Then again , if the
      weather is as bad as it is in K2 country bad retail will
      be blamed on folks staying home.Weather aside,
      retail will react principley to oil . Just a thought .
      TIG

    • >>>I think retail will move lower
      between now and January. This is based on my belief that
      the 4th quarter will be horrible for retail. Retail
      will make a solid move higher when the Fed eases or is
      expected to ease. Right now the labor market looks too
      tight for the Fed to ease. I think lousy 4th quarter
      results will bring down the entire retail sector - but
      not necessarily to new lows. What are the
      implications for HOTT - I don't have a clear opinion. I think
      the recent retail rally was bottom-fishing and short
      covering. Retail has been the sector to short this year and
      this little bounce off the bottom probably triggered a
      lot of short covering.


      My observations
      are that the retailers that have been bleeding are
      the ones that do not make full use of the technology
      available to them. The ones that make full use of
      technology have been taking away market share from the
      "horse and buggy" types. So the main concern would be ..
      can the "horse and buggy" types change their style in
      time for the Christmas season?? My guess is probably
      not .. the others are too far ahead of them at this
      point. Will the "horse and buggy" types poor performance
      drag down the rest of the retailers?? Perhaps they
      will .. or perhaps the market will finally catch on to
      what is going on in the whole world around us ... I
      think it is starting to get it ... and "it" does not
      only applies to retail.

      So what do I mean?
      Historically, technology advancements have benefited primarily
      those that knew how to use it to it's full use for
      their daily business activities rather than benefiting
      the ones that actually invented such technology. Of
      course there are exceptions to this ... for example ..
      General Electric.

      So could it be that the market
      is finally starting to grasp this fact ... could a
      better explanation than short covering .. possibly be ..
      that over the last couple of weeks we have seen some
      major market movement into those that are benefiting
      the most from the new technology .. and while at the
      same time those that did not understand what was going
      on saw retail (and other stocks) moving up so they
      got caught in the confusion and moved up the group in
      a broad based manner? I have no idea about what the
      market is doing ... perhaps you are dead on in your
      short-covering theory. I might add that I have no idea what the
      implications are for HOTT with regards to stock market
      reaction ... but my bet is that HOTT will execute superbly
      compared to the rest of the lot.

      The other thing I
      am not good at is forecasting the economy ... but
      would it not make sense that if every one is working we
      should have a superb Christmas shopping season?? Yes gas
      prices, utility and interest rates are up there .... but
      people are working .. they should be confident .. they
      are paying off there homes and cars. What will happen
      to their spare cash this Christmas? .. Perhaps they
      spend it (good news)... or perhaps they stuff it under
      the matress (bad news). Who knows -- I'm pretty bad
      when it comes to reading minds .. especially the minds
      of people I don't even know.

      >> I
      expect this Christmas to be quite disappointing. Right
      now I am slowly assembling a buying list in case this
      scenario plays out and I am faced with a brief buying
      opportunity.


      I hope you are right about there being a mark down
      on retail stocks ... there are a few I have on my
      shopping list as well .. missed one of em the first time
      around and the two others I would not mind adding to a
      bit more ... but only on some appropriate weakness.
      One of these is Liz Claiborne (I finally figured out
      why WEB likes it) and the other is Jones Apparel
      (although I already hold a fairly substantial position) and
      then of course it would not hurt to throw some more
      HOTT certificates into the sock if they can be had in
      the 20's.

      Anyways .. hope your shopping list
      is not too long .. all the best with your flower
      picking ... happy shopping!!

    • Karen,

      I think retail will move lower
      between now and January. This is based on my belief that
      the 4th quarter will be horrible for retail. Retail
      will make a solid move higher when the Fed eases or is
      expected to ease. Right now the labor market looks too
      tight for the Fed to ease. I think lousy 4th quarter
      results will bring down the entire retail sector - but
      not necessarily to new lows. What are the
      implications for HOTT - I don't have a clear opinion.


      I think the recent retail rally was bottom-fishing
      and short covering. Retail has been the sector to
      short this year and this little bounce off the bottom
      probably triggered a lot of short covering. I expect this
      Christmas to be quite disappointing. Right now I am slowly
      assembling a buying list in case this scenario plays out and
      I am faced with a brief buying opportunity.
      :)

      Tig,

      What about the Natick Mall? I will be heading
      there this Thursday to do some retail research. It is
      my favorite mall in MA - would go there more often,
      but it is a hike from Worcester.



      All,

      Happy Monday! Skafan tips his cap to the board
      and wishes everyone plentiful
      profits!

      :)

      pete
      "skafan"

    • No significance. Chart is neutral

      While
      stock has gone nowhere- a
      'base' hasn't really been
      established - 'cept for trading- buy under 29- sell above 31.
      Stock can easily zip in either direction. And really
      HOTT has always been a poor stock from a TA
      perspective. Moves at strange times- often contrary to market
      n sector.

      Keeping on eye on fundy's-
      upcoming ss n earnings report is the way to go.
      Leery
      about mrkt reaction to next ss report- (Halloween not
      there)-- pretty confident about reaction to earnings
      report.

      K:)

      • 1 Reply to Karen_9352
      • Thanks for the posts Karen I enjoy reading your
        perspectives . I'm not great at TA so tell me what it would
        take to establish a base here? Would it be just more
        time in this narrow range? Next. I have often wondered
        if I was the only one impressed with Jeff viniks
        357,000 share position in HOTT. Now I'm wondering what
        the hells going to happen to HOTTs price now that he
        is folding up the tent and dissolving the hedge
        fund? The story is in todays IBD. Any thoughts? thanks
        ,TIG

 

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