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Hot Topic Inc. Message Board

  • mawchek mawchek Aug 2, 2001 11:13 PM Flag

    Historica Perspective - Updated

    I've used some cut and paste to update my post #9028 to give some perspective on past HOTT price declines of 20% or more. As before, listed prices include intraday activity provided by Yahoo and are NOT adjusted for splits, but the percentages still apply:

    7-14-99 $31.625 (intermediate term high)
    8-11-99 $23.75 (drop of 25%)

    12-28-99 $27.12
    2-25-00 $14.62 (drop of 46%)

    4-3-00 $37.43
    5-30-00 $20.56 (drop of 45%)

    8-10-00 $40.62
    10-13-00 $27.39 (drop of 33%)

    12-6-00 $43.00
    12-21-00 $28.25 (drop of 34%)

    2-12-01 $29.87
    3-2-01 $21.75 (drop of 27%)

    5-22-01 $38.20
    6-5-01 $25.00 (drop of 35%)

    7-11-01 $33.06
    8-2-01 $25.50 (drop of 23%)

    The average price decline, excluding our present situation, equals 35%. If average history were to repeat, we could see $21.51 before we see a bottom. This would be marginally below the 200 DMA, a pattern we've seen several times before. Depressing in the short term, but let's remember that declines have been consistently followed by new highs. IMO, the "irrational" peak we saw on May 22 is causing some disruption in this historical pattern. For long term holders and traders alike, however, these dips and turns only prove to offer excellent buying opportunities.
    Let's keep our mind in the game.



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