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Pacific Capital Bancorp Message Board

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  • STupidProfile605 STupidProfile605 Apr 29, 2010 3:15 PM Flag

    What are we missing on stock price?

     

    The answer, best I can tell, is in the rights that legacy shareholders receive. Looks like legacy owners get 12 rights per share, exerciseable at $0.20/share.

    So, if the company is worth $0.25/share, then those rights are worth 12 x 5c = $0.60 + the $0.25 your legacy share itself is worth, gets you $0.85 share price today.

    However, the value is incredibly sensitive to the share price. For each 1c of incremental share price at the time of the rights offering, the rights are worth another 12c of share price today. So if the stock is worth 30c, then the rights are worth 12 x 10c = $1.20. Add in your original share at $0.30 and you get $1.50 share price today.

    A $0.40 share price in the future gets $2.80 share price today (12 * (40c-20c) + 40c = $2.80).

    Obviously if the shares are worth 20c or less, the rights are worth zero. So the shares are heavily levered to the value of the rights offering.

    This topic is deleted.
 

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