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Tiffany & Co. Message Board

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  • ajmanieri ajmanieri Dec 24, 2010 8:01 AM Flag

    profit margin squeeze is coming in Q4

    Okay, let me get this straight - the bulls see nothing but more upside after the recent HUGE run up over the past 60 days. Am I right? IMO the recent shopping spree those that have have gone on is priced in. So it comes down to the earnings report - which will be a blow out - but more importantly guidance on the conference call. What is going to be said that there is even more growth for 2011 with a hit to margins? That is the key. The rest of you focused solely on the fact that people will keep buying ignore this and are just jokers. If the costs keep rising - TIF is ever expanding (a good thing) but costly and the price of metals cannot be ignored - including energy too.

    So good luck to you perma Bulls. IMO the smart investor will call the bubble, sell and re-enter to go long when ALL RETAIL PULLS BACK in JANUARY. Check out retail - almost straight up since Sept. Must pull back in January. My price point to re enter TIF is in the low 50s.


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    • I would raise your entry price and, do believe it is an excellent stock to enter. Several growth engines with very good potential to help on the margin front. If you get mid to high fifty's I think you'll be very lucky. If you want to talk bubbles, gold has to be topping or at least slowing, in my opinion so that issue should abate. Also, they have managed this in the past, nothing really earth shattering, lots of flexibility with product options, design, smart management, resilient customer type, etc. etc,. I sold my trading position and plan to never sell my core position. Will look to add another trading position in the near future.

      Don't forget with an improving economy, we will get stock MULTIPLE EXPANSION, especially for a premium and classic brand like TIF. Plus, I believe you will have more, and NEW money chasing stocks in 2011, that should add to the multiple expansion.

70.09-0.38(-0.54%)2:29 PMEDT