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Apollo Education Group, Inc. Message Board

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  • dontdropyourlunch dontdropyourlunch Mar 17, 2005 10:18 AM Flag

    Interested in hearing the board

    Very weak response to the high p/e. The only thing keeping APOL bouncing up is hedge fund games each day who keep the shorts covering. APOL lost many of its momentum players quarters ago, and any earnings/revenues that are not blowout will make momo players who are still hanging on -- maybe you are one -- jump off APOL.

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    • Looking at past earnings history most would consider the following stream of income a very conservative estimate.

      Earnings | Growth in Earnings
      $2.43 Current year consensus analyst estimate
      $3.03 25%
      $3.70 22%
      $4.44 20%
      $5.24 18%
      $6.14 17%
      $7.14 16%
      $8.24 15%
      $9.45 15%
      $10.76 14%
      $12.23 14%
      $13.84 13%
      $15.63 13%
      $17.60 13%
      $19.76 12%
      $22.16 12%
      $24.82 12%
      $27.78 12%
      $31.05 12%
      $34.68 12%

      Assuming a BIG drop off in earnings rate, looking only twenty years out instead of "forever", and using a 10% discount rate this stream of income gives a current stock price of $88.51, assuming there is zero current asset value. Since the current assets of the company have value, and since most do not expect income growth to drop anywhere near this sharply, the $88.51 estimate would be considered a lower bound.

      I would not expect APOL's earnings to drop this fast, nor would I consider only 20 years in a NPV analysis. Therefore a price in the neighborhood of $75 right now is probably a good buy it now price, given the history of this company.

      John Harvey

    • Why is it weak? A much better response than "hedge fund games".

      And does ANYBODY know how to read an Income statement any more, or is all DD done using YHOO stats only?

      The 80+ PE, while accurate, is FLAWED if you want to analyze valuation. The E in the PE will be DRMATICALLY different when you back out the ONE TIME NON CASH CHARGE in 04

      But I guesws in Bizarro land, that don't matter.

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