Follow up #2: The Laureate bail-out for Thunderbird comes at a time when the trough in enrollment appears to be behind us. Laureate (KKR and other smart investors) know the industry better than almost anyone (far better than any of the shorts, of course). This is why several Thunderbird board members resigned, knowing they were getting taken at the bottom. The economy is picking up more quickly than most believe as well and enrollment (particularly business ed, a U of P focus) is highly correlated with economic growth. Also hearing that the second derivative of new enrollment growth at APOL has turned nicely positive. Has anyone else heard this as well? Today's stock action would confirm this as the stock appears to be under accumulation.
Follow up: Those of you who listened to the call know that they did not buy back a single share of their own stock in Q2 but logically that had to be because they know something and were legally prohibited (perhaps something about the upcoming HLC announcement?) or are preparing to announce a large deal. Once HLC is behind them, it is a safe bet they will either be VERY aggressive on repurchase or announce a deal. This series of events will create a powerful short covering rally, at least back to the $22 level, perhaps a lot higher.
I get what you guys are saying... Good stats etc. however its not growing. Most investors want a growing company. That is why you see the pull back on price realative to the seemingly impressive valution. Problem is, even on the conference call they see continioung enrollment decreases for the next two years (nogrowth for two years). So as an investor with limited resources would you invest in a trouled copmany in a troubled industry or invest in something that is growing? Thats the bottom line. Ultimately the price of a stock is about supply and demand... The Apol story just is not there for investors to want to own the stock,thus no demand. There is a story on the main page about the valuation trap, you guys are in the trap.