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Apollo Education Group, Inc. Message Board

  • ifckpumpers ifckpumpers Oct 29, 2013 9:43 AM Flag

    Can someone tell me what's happening here?

    This type of price action seems very strange for APOL's situation and their last 11 quarter declines.

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    • What is happening ... if you really care to figure the facts ... then ...

      Retail investors are being lured to hold APOL at it highest price ... smart investors are building new short positions in APOL ...

      APOL is closing business-units/university-campuses and stating the cost of such closures as one time activity that are not part of cost of doing business ... but they have been continuing the closure of business-units/university-campuses from quarter to quarter to beat EPS projection even when revenue is steadily declaing ...

      Many traditional research universities like ASU is offering valuable degrees almost at the same cost as degrees from UoP and the value of degrees from UoP could easily be guessed ...

      The chances of UoP graduate having any chance of getting a job when competing with an ASuOnline.ASu.edu graduate could easily be guessed ...

      ITT Technical institute that made their name in blue collar certificate courses joined the Online Education bubble has a P/E of 10.01 with their PPS being $41.90 and their earnings being $4.15/share ... APOL EPS is $2.1/share ... even with ESI valuation P/E of 10.1 APOL less than $21.3/share ...

      ESI is worth $29.5/share based on a P/E of 10 and its 2014 EPS of $2.95 where ESI would end up by QQ1 of 2014 ... one the same grounds APL would end up near $17.5 based on their 2014 EPS of $1.75 ...

      With traditional research universities like ASU is offering valuable degrees ... the journey and destiny of online universities like UoP is is most probably only one way ... shrinking revenues ... closing business-units/university-campuses and aggressive cost cutting .. all the way down ...

      Cost cutting makes enhancements to course materials and timely updates to the competitiveness of courses could quite naturally be moved to back burner ...

      Good that there are more buyers ... not only for those who are unloading APOL ... but for those who are building a good short position on APOL ...

    • The reason for the inexplicable surge (with no news on the stock) is MARGIN CALLS for shorts are being called in this a.m. Remaining shorts are being forced to buy to cover their short positions. Before last week, there was a high short interest in the stock (most have been called out by now though).

      One of the best shorting strategies is to wait until final margin calls are due for shorts during a short squeeze (usually 3-4 days from when they were triggered).

      Today is the 4th day after the 28% jump on the earnings report last week, so the final short margin calls are being liquidated today. Buying to cover activity will fizzle and then the stock falls under its own weight.

      If one is long a stock undergoing a short squeeze, the last day of the squeeze represents the last good profit-taking opportunity before the stock consolidates (usually at a lower price level)

 
APOL
29.27+0.12(+0.41%)Jul 23 4:00 PMEDT

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