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Apollo Education Group, Inc. Message Board

  • delphioracle2005 delphioracle2005 Oct 29, 2013 9:32 PM Flag

    Is APOL Max Value $21 for 2013 ... $17 for 2014 ... $9 for 2015 ... $5 for 2016 ???

    With traditional research universities like ASU is offering valuable degrees ... the journey and destiny of online universities like UoP is is most probably only one way ... shrinking revenues ... closing business-units/university-campuses and aggressive cost cutting .. all the way down ...

    Cost cutting makes enhancements to course materials and timely updates to the competitiveness of courses could quite naturally be moved to back burner ...

    APOL is closing business-units/university-campuses and stating the cost of such closures as one time activity that are not part of cost of doing business ... but they have been continuing the closure of business-units/university-campuses from quarter to quarter to beat EPS projection even when revenue is steadily declining ...

    Many traditional research universities like ASU is offering valuable degrees almost at the same cost as degrees from UoP and the value of degrees from UoP could easily be guessed ...

    The chances of UoP graduate having any chance of getting a job when competing with an ASuOnline.ASu.edu graduate could easily be guessed ...

    ITT Technical institute that made their name in blue collar certificate courses joined the Online Education bubble has a P/E of 10.01 with their PPS being $41.90 and their earnings being $4.15/share ... APOL EPS is $2.1/share ... even with ESI valuation P/E of 10.1 APOL less than $21.3/share ...

    ESI is worth $29.5/share based on a P/E of 10 and its 2014 EPS of $2.95 where ESI would end up by QQ1 of 2014 ...

    Based on ESI valuation would APOL would end up near $17.5 based on their 2014 EPS of $1.75 ... probably about $9/share for 2015 and about $5/share for 2016 ???

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    • Fast declining PPS of BPI, ESI and other online Educators could be the beginning of big correction ...

      ASU is offering Online Degree program @ ASUOnline.ASU.edu at highly competitive rates per credit

      Georgia Tech is offering Degree Programs @ DLPE.GATech.edu/dl/

      Who would hire a UoP graduate when they have an option to hire an ASU or GeorgiaTech graduate ...

    • For survival STRA seems to be cutting tuition rates by20% ... that seems tobe a tactic to steal students from other online universities mot probably mainly from APOL/UoP ...

    • Isn't today's (10/31) STRA report of their total enrollments for the 2013 fall term decreased 17% to 43,192 students compared to 51,727 students for the same term in 2012, and their overall online Strayer University campus continuing student enrollments decreasing 14%, while new student enrollments decreasing 23% ... a direct reflection of valuable traditional research universities offering real valuable online course offerings ....

      STRA announced drastic measures costing approximately $45-55 million in the fourth quarter, which includes ...

      Closing approximately 20 physical locations predominantly in the Midwest, making $30-40 million of the charges in the fourth quarter ...

      Aproximately $15 million charge in the fourth quarter for workforce reductions

      • 1 Reply to delphioracle2009
      • ASU is offering Online Degree program @ ASUOnline.ASU.edu at highly competitive rates per credit

        Georgia Tech is offering Degree Programs @ DLPE.GATech.edu/dl/

        Strayer (STRA) announced that they are chopping tution rates by 20% ... an attempt to reduce an alarming and steady rate of student enrollments ...

        APOL, CPLA and other may have to follow up STRA action to avoid losing students ...

    • You can't use a simplistic P/E approach to valuing APOL (or any stock, for that matter, I would argue). Take a look at APOL using a sum-of-parts approach, taking into account the value of U of P, technology biz, other businesses, cash, etc. and you'll come up with something closer to $34/$35 per share. And that gives the stock NO CREDIT for any present value of accretive deals done in the future with all the cash on hand. So if you look at it a bit more deeply you'll see the real value....hope this helps.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to hedgiesqueezer
      • Not only simplistic but no any realistic valuation could appreciate over $20/share value for a closing down business that has best in breed competition offering real value products (traditional research universities) for almost the same price to customers ...

        You have to use BANANA REPUBLIC valuation to put a PPS north of $20 for 2013 EPS of APOL ...

        Forget about $34 that you are dreaming for the stock that smart longs and shorts dumped on you in a matter of 3 years APOL could be selling for $3.4 PPS ...

 
APOL
27.77+0.27(+0.98%)Aug 29 4:00 PMEDT

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