If you rememember correct I did not say the price would crash immediately after earnings announcement but rather would slowly drift back downward as investors get tired of waiting for something to happen and realize their money can work harder for them someplace else. The price will not recover back to current levels until Nov / Dec when the investors will buy back in in expectations of another announcement. Until then, this stock is at the mercy of the MM.
not many products get to the final phase of trials only to fail. It is now just a matter of time and the time table given is for the end of the year as they are still enrolling patients into the study I don't see any early surprises on FDA approval of Hiv home test kit.
I did not like the negative future earnings estimates and as it appears as though Europe's economy is behind the US in recovery I don't see the poor sales figures given in the conference call for the European marketplace improving soon especially in any government sponsored programs as well as products that will only do better when hiring improves. The one positive, other than beating the lowly set estimates for the quarter, I did glean from the conference call was the improvement of free cash flow and I consider that big.
As in the past, I took profits today on the positive sentiment after earnings and will wait a while to get get all back in. The market as a whole is starting to scare me so I also allowed very tight stops to hit in all of my holdings except SIRI which still has earnings next week. Its been a heck of a run with Osur as well as the whole market recently and although I may be leaving some food on the table I fall into the category of twice bitten .....
so I will wait. The chart shows a nice consolidation pattern starting back around Jan 10 as the high today touched the same high on that day. I think we have more sideways action to follow as the consolidation starts to tighten even more. I think the next time back in should be as the price gets into the 50 day moving average which right now looks like it will be between $6 and $6.20. Of course that's just chartology and no one believes that crap eh?
Again, Jerry..., u may be correct.
But i think it's at least equally plausible that not only is this current study the last one required but that further scientific panel involvement may be unnecessary. The previous panel recommended this final study and other stipulations such as hiring a firm to provide telephone counseling in the event of a positive test result, which is in place and ready to go. So if the data from the current study clearly shows consumers can test themselves and act appropriately on the result, no need for another scientific panel review before granting approval, IMO. Now, if the study results are equivocal, then the FDA might return to a scientific panel for advice, IMO.
Of course, if the study results clearly show the consumer can't perform the test, then there will be no need to take that result to a scientific panel. The FDA can simply say "no" on its own.
what i meant is that after the fda receives the data (which i agree is at the end of 2011), it usually takes another year for the FDA review and before we get an actual decision on approval.
reading between the lines, the company seems to be warning investors that it could take even longer because the FDA will require an advisory panel as well.
U may be right about your timetable, but I doubt it.
The FDA gets the data as soon as the study is done, according to Osur's previous conf call. No massaging of the data by Orasure.
Of course, the FDA could also find another errand to send Orasure on, but I doubt that too. Regardless, I think the doom and gloom predicted after earnings was overstated. Besides, it's always fun taking the contrarian point of view.
i think people are holding for the fingerstick HCV fda decision which is supposed to happen any day. it's so highly anticipated and expected that I bet we get a sell off afterwards, just like what happened last year when they got the first HCV approval.
So, my friends, even though no one here has had anything positive to say about earnings or the conference call or management, the share price keeps inching up despite predictions by some to the contrary. This suggests to me that investors are soley focused on the results of the current clinical study, which should be completed by early summer as promised. And if those results show that consumers can perform the proposed OTC rapid HIV test satisfactorily in their own home, then there is a strong liklihood that the FDA will approve the test for OTC sale, hopefully by year end. Yes? No?
guidance was god awful. every aspect of the business is in serious decline.
and sales of the hepatitis C test in europe are practically non-existent.
makes me think the hepatitis C test is going to flop in the US as well.
Orasure management always intentionally guides very low so they can easily beat earnings and collect 100% of their "performance bonus" stock awards and cash bonus. It's a scam to steal from shareholders who keep waiting for the HIV/OTC test bonanza. Someday that may happen, but it's been so many years in coming that it's benefit is now diminished as better HIV drug treatments are available and HIV/AIDS is far removed from daily news headlines. As always with this company, expect delays. The only good thing here is that the stock is so boring that momentum daytraders have ignored it and thus there is almost no significant downside pressure.