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OraSure Technologies, Inc. Message Board

  • kevinvests kevinvests May 1, 2013 2:42 PM Flag

    The numbers are in:

    20,000 pharmacy stores across america. Let's just assume that Osur sells about 5 units/month, 3 months to a quarter. Each store thus sold 15 units over Q1, priced at $40/unit= $600 each store. $600 x 20,000 stores= $12 millions of extra income from over the counter sells. This estimate is based on 5 units/store/month. Last year osur had an average of $4 millions loss each quarter. This etra income may just bring it to the positive cash flow that we have been looking for.

    I assume the cost of each unit which is a box of paper and reagents; hence, the only cost is advertisement which as we have seen is nearly nonexistent. Perhaps, this is the reason, management was so careful not to spend too much on adverstisement in order to publish the first profit ever.

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    • They may have sold a truck load to pharmacy stores at discount price. The stores then sell for profits. Could be huge, but I am only guessing

    • Full Disclosure: I have no position in this stock.
      As to my credibility, please see my posts on the MRGE board and if you dig far enough back, there is some material on LVB. Otherwise, I'm quiet.

      Kevin,

      OSUR does not get the full $40 per unit. You need to factor in the markup that the retailer gets and subtract that from the retail price.

      Also, an average of 5 units/store per months is very high. I have performed extensive, extensive research on this since September. I'd use a number between 1 and 2.5 per month. Now if you think this product will catch on, that's another story. I however, do not.

      -QJ

      • 3 Replies to quietjames6
      • "Now if you think this product will catch on, that's another story. I however, do not. "

        Why do you think it will not catch on, James? Stigma?

      • Kevin, they have started marketing their product and there is some talk about medical professionals wanting all at-risk people (a very high percentage of the human race) to get tested. This kit has the potential to gain national attention and that would bring in a lot of buyers. Regarding the $40 per unit; most retailers pay less than half for anything they sell (with another slice going to the supply chain) so you are correct; that is a worthless number to use when doing calculations. Regardless, 5 units per store per month is a rather small number compared to the number of customers who are at risk. Personally, I can imagine the day when young males will stock up on these in much the way many of them already stock up on condoms.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Regarding credibility, the Yahoo board does not have all my posts as I was getting blocked for posting contrarian arguments.

        Please refer to Seeking Alpha. Performing a simple Google search of "Quietjames Seeking Alpha".

    • how much is the wholesale price? what are margins on the OTC sales?
      how much does the dedicated callcenter cost?
      how much did they actually spend on advertising?
      how much did they pay Magic Johnson?
      was there any product returns?
      how much spoilage and loss due to unprofitable mix?
      how much were executive bonuses for meeting performance goals
      will they continue to issue more stock options to executives?
      did they have to reorder raw materials?
      by what percentage did online sales decline?

    • You have said this before and it does sound great. But it seems the street has not thought that way since it was at 12$

 
OSUR
8.40+0.12(+1.45%)Jul 30 4:00 PMEDT

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