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NewLink Genetics Corporation Message Board

  • kblumb kblumb Oct 10, 2012 7:42 AM Flag

    Second Phase III trial in Pancreatic Cancer

    More than doubles potential market / multi billion!

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    • Klumb, what are your thoughts on entry price / range for nlnk?

    • I'm surprised they went straight to Phase III when to my knowledge they haven't done anything for this indication (locally advanced) prior. I guess the data they've been getting for the subgroups of the resected patients (2a and 2b) made it obvious that Hyperacute Pancreas will work for these patients as well. If successful, they'll have half the pancreatic cancer indications which would put us at a valuation that dwarfs what we're seeing today. And that's just from Hyperacute pancreas!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to acolonf5
      • Aco, I think you got it right. This is my third immunotherapy / oncology investments , my first two Medarex and Micromet both got taken out Med by Bristol and Micro by Amgen. They all have different approaches to spur the immune system but what they all have in common is getting the patients own immune system to attack and in some cases even cure cancers. I know you're not supposed to say cure and cancer together but the results speak for themselves. Good luck to the patients in the trials and good luck to the longs!

    • ...and that's now 3 PhIII trials.

      • 1 Reply to nhyujm6
      • All great news, though keep in mind these trials are costly and cash reserves are low and nowhere near what will be required to get these trials fully enrolled. A secondary is coming - whether is a straight up equity raise or something more like a convertible bond or preferred shares issue, dilution is coming.
        The question is will they do it now while the pps has more than double (the safe play) or wait until the first-look at the phase 3 data is out. The run-up in pps means that data needs to be strongly positive to extend this rally and therefore raise equity at even better valuations. Any disapointment will send shares down sharply and result in more dilution on a secondary equity raise. That is a higher risk approach.

        Sentiment: Buy

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