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NewLink Genetics Corporation (NLNK) Message Board

  • captainblud captainblud Oct 15, 2012 11:15 AM Flag

    MITI

    I was in MITI when it and its phase 2 antibody was purchased for 1.1 billion. This thing has 3 phase 3s and they are for much bigger markets and for solid tumors which are a much harder nut to crack. If this is bought (and I pray it is not), it will be for more than 1.2 billion which is a 4 bagger. I think the parasitic response is unique and will make this drug line very powerful and valuable. Results will drive this under the rader stock thru the roof.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • If you look at their last presentation, they talk about the number of pancreatic cancer patients that they could treat for their most advanced pancreatic cancer trial in both the U.S. and Japan, about 20,000. If this drug works, along with the other phase III indication of locally advanced pancreatic cancer along with resected pancreatic cancer, it could be about 35,000 patients.

      They will not seek a partner for this drug and they will have almost 100% of this market!

      They've also talked about selling the drug consistant with DNDN's provenge prices, however cost will me much, much less. This means that you could reasonably expect peak sales of around $2.5 billion, all things considered.

      This drug alone would put the potential valuation at around $8-$10 billion!

      I'm usually pretty conservative and this seems like an exaggeration but I believe these numbers are an accurate reflection of what will happen in the future. And once again, I'm just referring to HyperAcute Pancreas!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to acolonf5
      • Factor in the NSCLC population and the numbers are staggering.

        Estimated new cases in the US for 2012 is 225,000...based on P2 data, approximately 60% will have the required immune characteristics to qualify for the treatment so say US addressable market is 120,000 potential revenue at $75k per treatment would be $9 billion in the US alone.

        Worldwide new cases of NSCLC were approx 1.4 million in 2008. You do the math.

 
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