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TIBCO Software, Inc. Message Board

  • dfwetr23765 dfwetr23765 Dec 20, 2012 9:48 PM Flag

    somebody is playing in the after-hours with his dad's computer ?

    otherwise difficult to explain the spike in pps after such a bad announcement
    missing numbers, poor guidance..

    imo would be interesting to find out who's buying in the after-hours and what would be one reason to buy at this point instead of shorting

    - are there some desperate shorts trying to cover?
    - some people who really believe this is a good buy at this point ?
    - somebody who is trying to pump up things for tomorrow ? who/why would do that?

    boz ? any thoughts here ?

    how would u read the today ccall? from your track record you are the best tibx stock direction predictor..

    please share with us your thoughts

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    • The content of the call was much worst than the guidance.

      The call was like a game of Clue...I left the call wondering if it was Vivek in the library with candlestick?

      The reduced guidance was already baked into the PPS. However, the simple mathematics of call may erode away some confidence. Vivek made no sense...the numbers behind the excuses did not add up. I left the call wondering why Vivek was all over the place?

      If you're not really hiring and not doing any product refreshes...why would your EPS/margins go down?

      Is it they are not buying back any shares? Which would have an impact on the float and EPS?

      Is it they lost of ton of sales people and quickly replaced them which would have an impact on EPS?

      Are they reducing prices to capture more deals? If this true than its a problem for 2013 because that indicates the competition is stealing market share.

      Really a bizarre call.

      • 2 Replies to boz_inc
      • Very bizarre indeed. Love this comment by Vivek "For that there is virtually no competition; actually for all of these areas there is no competition" (talking about cloud solutions). No competition? Really? For Vivek it's all sales people related. Just drive the sales guys harder and it will all be fixed.

        Now, Spotfire seems to continue to do well and there was very little growth over the same quarter last year (for the business as a whole). What does that tell us? Right, the other parts of the business are underperforming. I think Vivek is dead wrong; this is not about pearl string selling. TIBCO has no platform, just a bunch of interconnected products. A massive product refresh is required and the whole sales equation needs to be tilted (less reliance on sales people). This is starting to look more and more like an attractive buyout where the acquirer can do some nice product cherry picking (Spotfire, messaging etc) and can cut out sales/management/marketing/admin. Just give it a few more compounded misses and the price might become attractive.

      • i was hoping u have some ideas boz, but it seems like you've also lost your crystal ba11s..

        yeah, i didn't understand their comments either..

        but if it is as u say - sales people defecting - that could be another prediction..
        = sales people don't leave fertile feeding grounds..they leave only when are done sucking the harvest dry

        so..did they run out of juice so bad ?

        somebody (was that you?) mentioned active matrix - what is that ? sounds kind of like "science fiction meets the enterprise"
        (hopefully it is more science than fiction)

        did they run out of products to sell, or what happens that makes the sales dudes head out in droves ? (assuming your hypothesis is correct)

        also - think about the potential customers.. imho if the potential customers start reading the desperation in the sales people's eyes, it may not be the end of the maya world, but the end of the large enterprise deal as they know it..