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TIBCO Software, Inc. Message Board

  • kerrsmacker kerrsmacker Mar 21, 2013 5:35 PM Flag

    This looks awful on the surface...

    but when you look underneath it's a DISASTER! License revenue, deferred revenue & bookings were all below consensus and the first two below their own guidance. The cash flow number looks OK until you realize the almost all of it came from a reduction in accounts receivable which is an indication of a declining business. And then there's the guidance.

    I don't know who's buying this thing at 19+ after hours, but this stock should be trading at $15.

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    • agree - perhaps they might be pampered just another time by analysts tomorrow like the guy from Merrill who just upgraded the stock (solely based on the fact they didn't issue a warning at this point !) but I guess at least some of these guys will move to the sidelines for now as the "one quarter issue" seems to become at least a multi quarter issue and imho a very real change of the demand landscape going forward with TIBX falling back against the big guys from the likes of ORCL and IBM. Given the fact that even ORCL delivered a bad quarter and weak guidance investors should avoid this segment as a whole for the time being. Would instead look at pure play cloud companies for exposure to the space.

      Prediction for tomorrow:

      Would expect a couple of downgrades as earnings, guidance and the conference call actually were close to armageddon. Stock will make new 52-week-lows and should be down 25 or even 30% - if some ill fated analysts still advice to buy the stock on weakness things might look a bit better but the after hours decline should be easily exceeded tomorrow morning.

    • Hey..... be quiet. Let me short in the morning before you let on this stock is way overvalued even at 19 and some change. I agree with you. The multiple on this declining business is going way, way down.

 
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