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Galectin Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

  • tcismi13 tcismi13 Sep 26, 2010 7:35 AM Flag

    oncoming dilution

    In its Rodman & Renshaw presentation a couple of weeks ago PRWP set out a timeline for initiating its proposed phase III trial for Davanat in the US. In it PRWP said that it hoped to file for a special protocol assessment and initiate its phase III trial by the end of the year...CONTINGENT ON RAISING SUFFICIENT FUNDS (emphasis mine; PRWP used an asterisk and little tiny letters!).

    Since PRWP will have to raise funds in order to initiate the phase III, and even in the unlikely event Davanat does generate meaningful revenue in Colombia the earliest that could happen is sometime next year, it looks like PRWP is positioning itself to do another shelf offering sometime in the next couple of months.

    If you're new to biotech or this stock, be aware! The last shelf PRWP announced cost the stock an instant 40% haircut, and the PIPE that the company entered into before that was even worse. The recent flurry of presentations and PRs is imo designed to try to get the stock price up so the oncoming dilution will only be bad (instead of awful) to the share price and cuurrent investors. If you're really enthusiastic about this company I have three suggestions:

    1) Do your own DD and see if any of the claims PRWP makes for Davanat have been peer reviewed or published (they haven't);
    2) Call the company and ask they what trial with a 4.6 month BSC they used to compare Davanat's 6.7 months to (they won't tell you--the 4.6 trial had much sicker patients in it!)
    3) And wait until the dilution happens to get in if you're still interested. You'll probably get your shares a whole lot cheaper.
    Good luck. Tc

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    • Just a reminder that dilution is indeed inevitable by the end of the year unless PRWP cancels its stated plan to initiate the US phase 3 trial. This message board doesn't appear to have many new vicitors, but if you ARE new here, keep this in mind: it's important. PRWP took an instant 40% hit when the last shelf offering was announced, and the PIPE previous to that dropped the stock from above 3 to below 1. PRWP said it was trying to raise funds to get the P3 started, so if it's successful, shareholders won't be, short term! And a delay wouldn't help the stock price any either.
      Tread cautiously here. Tc

    • And I'm bringing this topic to the top as well. PRWP has about two months with which to get the $ to initiate the phase 3 it says it intends to do--the alternative is to delay the trial. Either result will be BAD for current shareholders: the last shelf offering PRWP did cost the stock an instant 40% haircut, and the stock kept on going down from there for an entire year. Buyer beware. Tc

      PS--what ever happened to the $200k PRWP said it got from Procaps? It's been, what, over 4 months now and it hasn't been booked?

      Interesting.

      • 3 Replies to tcismi60
      • >>>PS--what ever happened to the $200k PRWP said it got from Procaps? It's been, what, over 4 months now and it hasn't been booked?<<<

        Good question, I've been wondering the same thing. They had said it was being delayed until the factory was ready and some importing paper work was being worked out, but that's been going on a very long time now.

      • >>>Here it comes, da Mother of all VERY, VERY BIG NEWS.<<<

        Dilution is big news all right, but is NOT a good thing for the stock price!
        It'll happen before the end of the year, or PRWP will postpone its phase 3 trial initiation due to lack of funds. Both things would hurt the share price...a lot. Tc

        PS--whatever happened to the $200k PRWP said it would receive from ProCaps? It's been 4+ months now and no $. Maybe PRWP was lying about it? What a surprise that would be (not!).

    • Just bringing the topic to the top again as a reminder. If PRWP does intend to initiate the phase 3 by the end of the year, as it says it plans to, it'll have to dilute. It said so itself.
      The last shelf offering cost existing shareholders an instant 40% hit, and there's no reason to think it won't be just as bad this time.

      Anyone wading through the crap on this MB to do DD, look at PRWP's price history in early 2008. The stock price got pumped up via presentations and fluff PRs, and then the dilution hit. The pattern is identical.

      Buyer beware! Tc

    • Just reiterating that PRWP says it needs $ in order to initiate its phase 3 trial and intends to do so by the end of the year. Clearly dilution is imminent. The last shelf offering cost the stock an instant 40% haircut, and the PIPE before that was even worse. Smart shareholders will get out before it happens, and get back in afterwards. Lol, truly smart shareholders will sell and never look back, as Davanat almost certainly wouldn't achieve statistical significance in the envisioned trial. But there don't seem to be too many of these on this MB. :~P
      So get while the getting is good. It's very likely you'll be able to get back in much cheaper if you want to in a month or two. Tc

    • I'm backing off (a tiny bit) from my thestreetcom comments. Though I totally agree with Adam Fuerstein's derisive view of PRWP, I doubt a months old article was the reason for yesterday's big volume plummet. I'll just reiterate that dilution is not only inevitable before the end of the year, it is obvious: and anyone with a brain is getting out of the way before that tsunami hits. Tc

    • Ask TC who he is?
      Ask TC who he works for?
      Ask Tc what his credentials are?
      Ask Tc what his Medical background is?
      Ask TC what business background he has?
      Ask TC how many drugs he has brought to market.
      Ask TC how many FDA trials he has been involved in?
      Ask TC what practical experience he has in the drug development field?
      Ask TC how many drugs ( other than the ones he sticks up his nose) he has brought to market in other countries?
      Ask TC what motivates him to keep post on a penny stock MB?
      Ask Tc what makes him the final authority on this company ?
      Ask Tc why you should take his advise at all?

      I bet you will find PRW is much more truthful that TC is?

    • Though thestreetcom's article slamming PRWP was written months ago, it's barely possible that it's behind yesterday's debacle. Here's a recap. Tc


      (By Adam Fuerestein)
      I called the public relations people working with Pro-Pharma on Wednesday asking for slides and/or published articles so that I could review the phase II data on Davanat in colon cancer, the drug's lead indication.

      Pro-Pharma's spokeswoman explained to me the company hasn't presented or published any of the Davanat data (from a study conducted in 2004-2006) because the FDA places "serious restrictions" on publishing clinical data without the agency's approval.

      "Since Pro-Pharmaceuticals is in the design stage of phase III based on its phase II study, the company has not applied to the FDA regarding publishing the [phase II] clinical data," the company spokeswoman told me in an email, after she consulted with Pro-Pharma's chief scientist Anatole Klyosov. [I'm not identifying the spokeswoman because she's nice and is just doing her job. No need to embarrass her any further.]

      Naturally, the biotech B.S. detector chip implanted in my brain went into red alert mode after hearing that cockamamie excuse for not sharing old phase II data. The story doesn't get any better after reading what little Pro-Pharma has said publicly about Davanat.

      Pro-Pharma claims to have run a phase II study enrolling 25 patients with advanced colon cancer treated with Davanat and the chemo drug 5-FU in which the median overall survival was 6.7 months, or 46% higher than the 4.6-month median overall survival for patients treated with best standard of care.

      Except that survival advantage is totally made up because the study treated all patients with Davanat and 5-FU, with no control arm to perform any credible analysis of a survival benefit. Pro-Pharma acknowledges this in the fine print of its corporate slides, stating that the 4.6-month median overall survival for patients treated with best standard of care comes from a "recent publication" i.e. someone else's clinical study.

      Davanat is supposed to increase the amount of chemotherapy that can be administered to a patient while also decreasing the side effects. After looking at the sparse clinical data available on Davanat, my confidence level in the authenticity of these claims is rather low.

      Pro-Pharma seems to operate on a shoestring budget, which has forced the halt to several other studies of Davanat. It's not entirely clear if any of the Davanat studies were ever completely finished per design; Pro-Pharma says it stopped the phase II colon cancer study, for example, because "we achieved our objective."

      Um, but usually, companies complete patient enrollment and treatment before conducting an analysis and concluding that a study's objectives were met. For some reason, Pro-Pharma operates clinical trials backwards. Maybe this is why it's the only company in all of biotech that needs FDA permission to present or publish phase II data?

      On Wednesday, Pro-Pharma said it was moving ahead with plans for a commercial launch of Davanat in Colombia. That's Colombia, the country in South America. Apparently, Colombia President Alvaro Uribe is really excited about bringing Davanat to all Colombians suffering from colon cancer."

    • (PRWP)--The Company is actively seeking to raise additional capital, primarily for the commercialization of its lead compound DAVANAT�.

      (NH)-- Da serial liar I sure will try to spin this as an "oncoming dilution"....


      Lol, no spin is needed. PRWP says it's seeking additional funds in order to commercialize Davanat, just as I've been telling you for a couple of weeks now it would have to do. Your response, of course, has been denial all along, calling my pretty simple prediction "mindless
      speculation" and "stupidity."

      It seems PRWP reached the apex of the pre-dilution pump a couple of days ago. It makes sense that a shelf or PIPE will be announced soon, since the company has said it intends to initiate the phase 3 by the end of the year "contingent upon raising sufficient funds."

      Do you think the hit to the stock price will be the instant 40% it was with the last shelf?
      Not looking good...Tc

      • 1 Reply to tcismi90
      • By the fact that replies ceased to my message a few days ago, I'm assuming the pumpers get it that dilution is indeed coming and silence is their best tactic--the hope being that new or current investors won't have done sufficient reading to figure out that a major stock price hit is imminent. Here's my last post on the subject again, for anyone new to the board.
        ------------------------


        (PRWP)--The Company is actively seeking to raise additional capital, primarily for the commercialization of its lead compound DAVANAT�.

        (NH)-- Da serial liar I sure will try to spin this as an "oncoming dilution"....


        Lol, no spin is needed. PRWP says it's seeking additional funds in order to commercialize Davanat, just as I've been telling you for a couple of weeks now it would have to do. Your response, of course, has been denial all along, calling my pretty simple prediction "mindless
        speculation" and "stupidity."

        It seems PRWP reached the apex of the pre-dilution pump a couple of days ago. It makes sense that a shelf or PIPE will be announced soon, since the company has said it intends to initiate the phase 3 by the end of the year "contingent upon raising sufficient funds."

        Do you think the hit to the stock price will be the instant 40% it was with the last shelf?
        Not looking good...Tc

    • Tommy, the Big News is that there is never any Big News. You can go back in the posts or you can just watch Jack-AZ for a while and you'll find that he consistently makes "To the Moon" promises that are never realized. You can always count on "Christmas Present" predictions, "End of the Year" predictions, "First of the Year" predictions and I think there might have been a "Mothers Day" prediction but I'm not sure, he makes so many. But, it sounds like you already have him figured out so I don't think I'm really providing you with any shocking news. Welcome to the asylum.

    • Mr majorazcash,

      I looked at the some posts and you were the one who said that PRWP raised $70 million year to date. If PRWP raised $70 million this year why don't they have any cash. I am also interested in your post that PRWP will be on the map in 90 days. I looked at the FDA clinical trial database and PRWP has no active trials. What is the big news?

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