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Galectin Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

  • tcismi10 tcismi10 Oct 2, 2011 8:17 AM Flag

    swankyusta's post concerning GALT valuation

    I've managed to resurrect it. Let's see if the folk who got it deleted last time try to do so again. Tc
    --------------------------------------

    I realize you bozos can't do arithmetic...but you should go back and see how many warrants (24mm) 10XFund has, and all of the details of Preferred and management options.

    If you read the latest 13-D filing (if you even know what Edgar is) you will see the total possible share count, including Preferred conversions etc. is just a bit less than 120mm.
    Although there is much more detail, I will try and walk you through the simple way.

    (a) Aggregate number and percentage of beneficially owned Common Stock: 50,862,698; 44.6%
    If 50,862,698 = 44.6% of the potentially outstanding shares, solve for x and you will find that the total number of shares = 114,041,924.

    Even if they come up with a drug that generates $750,000,000 in revenue in 6 or 7 years, the stock may not really have much more than a fair value of $1 today since the probability of achieving that is maybe 10%??

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Another post the pumpers somehow manage to get deleted (but I resurrected, do they really think it's tough to do?).
      Guess they're afraid of the truth and hope that if they can make it "go away" their stock's price won't reflect reality. Tc

    • CORN! ....hehehehehehehehe

    • With TC et al (that's "and others" for you fecal oriented idiots)it's personal. And, there's no room for personal feelings in the investment in stock. Except, of course, if you're sick and off the meds.

    • <<<Your re-posts are no longer accurate or relevant to new-to-GALT folks.<<<

      Um, actually, they're quite relevent.
      There is a major difference with Traber in charge instead of Platt, agreed. But Davanat is still being continually delayed in Colombia (and now a DECISION on approval is expected some time in 2012, not "approval is expected in 2011"--and don't forget Traber was CEO for both those announcements). And GALT is totally de-emphasizing Colombia in its last several PRs in favor of the pre-clinical liver stuff, even though it was crowing about how important revenue from Colombia would be for the previous few years.
      And the understanding of Davanat's MOA will matter in future trials, but is of little import re:Colombia. Tc

    • Granny's right. Your previously posted material goes back years when GALT had a different name and significantly different management. Look at the makeup of the board vs 2006. Huge difference. Platt's gone, Huge difference. Traber running the show, Huge difference. Understanding of GM-CT-01 MOA has improved and become defined vs pre-2009ish understanding, Huge difference. Your re-posts are no longer accurate or relevant to new-to-GALT folks. It seems you may be trying to mislead, or are just ignoring the Huge changes that have occurred over the last 2-3 yrs.

    • >>>Yawn, TC. You're getting repetitive over and over and over and over and over and over again.<<<
      My focus has always been to inform new-to-GALT folk. You're correct that I often repeat previously posted (but still accurate and relevent) info. If you find that boring, then put me on ignore. Tc

    • Suggest you are the one making repetitive posts of the same thing. Also, suggest you come back in a year and see if you are a bagholder or a 5 bagger; my money is on the former.

    • Please explain your math. 750M in revs / 120M shares only equates to $1 / share? I don't get it. Usually stocks trade at some sort of multiple don't they?

    • Tc. & Swanky
      While I agree with the dilution calculations and the likelihood that the share price will never rise much beyond $1.00 or $2.00 per share, that does not mean that money will not be made if the compound proves promising in some disease.

      The problem is that the real beneficiaries of big license fees and milestone payments are the managers in place at the time. They get to negotiate the terms of the deal and you can bet that they will not be unfavorable to them. Long term employment contracts, golden parachutes and who knows what perks.

      Common stock shareholders get to take all the risks and provide all of the funding and then get shortchanged even if the dream comes true.

      Unfortunately, this is the way the system works.

      • 1 Reply to glycoschmyco
      • >>>Tc. & Swanky
        While I agree with the dilution calculations and the likelihood that the share price will never rise much beyond $1.00 or $2.00 per share...<<<

        I don't think either one of us suggested $2+ was ever in the cards (short of a major pump 'n' dump), glyco. I certainly didn't, anyway! I'll reiterate (from the deleted topic) that I think swanky's 10% chance/$750mil in 6-7 years is very generous. Even if Davanat does eventually get approved in Colombia, the rich will prefer drugs that have actually finished trials and have been demonstrated to work in the US; and the poor will take what the Colombian healthcare system gives them. Add to that that the company (ProCaps) trying to get Davanat approved and marketed has ZERO expertise in oncology (they specialize in nutriceuticals and paintballs!) and it's really hard to see how any significant sales will occur.

        The fibrosis compound might be another story, but it hasn't even been tried in humans yet. So revenue from that is years if not a decade off, even if it works.

        >>>The problem is that the real beneficiaries of big license fees and milestone payments are the managers in place at the time. They get to negotiate the terms of the deal and you can bet that they will not be unfavorable to them. Long term employment contracts, golden parachutes and who knows what perks.
        Common stock shareholders get to take all the risks and provide all of the funding and then get shortchanged even if the dream comes true.<<<

        Yup. Tc

 
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11.61+1.33(+12.94%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT

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