I am a newbe on this board but can not resist adding a bit. Just got back from a breakfast with two old oil boys. I listened closly to what the independent driller/service company owner told us. His rig count is increasing at the maximum rate he will permit it to increase. One of his prime customers has just started a major build up of one field in the US. The kitty is $1.5B for field development in the next year. That seems to be happening more of late.
This even in the face of a really bad USA political oil environment. Someone must know something or they are making a bad gamble. These guys do not throw their cash down rat holes so I tend to go with their $$ cash flow.
the same guy put me onto NOV He suggested "take a hard look at NOV. I think you will like what you see for a longer term play."
Whereas your conclusion is plausible, most oil producing companies will probably utilize this temporary correction as an opportunity to re-tool and invest in maintaining or improving the rigs and associated service.
NOV may dip as suggested. If it does it an opportunity to buy.
Demand for oil will out pace production. Until someone can figure out a cheaper energy source. NOV as well as its competition will only profit from this consequence.