It very much depends on what the oil service company does and how it recieves it's cash flow. NOV has some clear advantages and in the short term rig count has less of an impact than you might think.
Revenues wer 2.8 Billion from Rig Technologies, 1.7 billion from petroleum services, and 1.2 Billion from distribution and transmission.
Backlog for capital equipment orders for the Company’s Rig Technology segment at December 31, 2012 was a record at $11.86 billion, up two percent from the third quarter of 2012. New orders during the quarter were $2.42 billion, reflecting continued good demand for oilfield equipment.
The distibution and transmission business is on fire more than doubling in the fourth quarter.
In the services business they supply an industrial bas of more than just oil and gas. Any heavy industry uses their service, pulp and paper, power generation, public infrastucture. Build out mostly but more and more maintenance ....parts supply.
So thats the bull case...............................where is my biggest risks? technical ....?????