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CryoLife Inc. Message Board

  • dlhild Feb 18, 2010 6:44 PM Flag

    conference call

    1. Generally, CRY put some good numbers on the board, but this is not a simple story. Also, it has a number of complications.
    2. CRY will have good cash flow thru 2012, because of NOL's and tax credits.
    3. There was some seriously misrepresented information put out today by SGA. Aspects of this will be discussed and played out over time. To put it simply though, these misrepresentations give me good reason why Medafor does not want to be acquired by CRY.
    4. I suspect Medafor is important to CRY's long term pipeline. Also, it is far from certain whether CRY will be successful in their takeover attempt.
    5. BioFoam is still a pipeline product. No real revenues in sight yet. That may change with the passage of time.
    6. It appears clear to me that CRY is going to try to change the Medafor board, and thereby Medafor management, via a proxy fight to change the board. Remember that 3 years ago Medafor had a proxy fight headed up by Richard Perkins. That group lost the last proxy fight by quite a large margin. It sounds to me like Perkins has been replaced by SGA, who I admit has a deeper pocket.
    7. SGA asked Medafor shareholders to contact Medafor management with their thoughts. I did. I told them let's fight, because the real value of Medafor is about 3 years further out in time. Why give away my shares now, when they will have a much higher value then.
    8. BioGlue goes off patent in 2012/2013. This was not discussed.

    I'm not going to post very often. I'd much rather work with other Medafor shareholders and support current management in a fight to preserve and protect the Medafor family of shareholders. Strategic decisions will need to be made, and I'm not going to discuss them here.

    I intend to keep channel trading CRY stock though, since I'm following CRY events anyway.

    Finally, I think CRY will be significantly affected by the direction of the overall market. I think we have several years ahead of us where we are all in a wealth destruction environment. If the market continues to do well, CRY will probably trade up from here. But across all my stocks, I'm being very careful. If this market gets clipped for 25% or more say, which I think is far more likely than not, CRY will get clipped right along with the overall market. When the tide goes out, everything goes down. We are still in a secular bear market, don't let the day to day stuff take your eye off the ball. First there is a bubble. Then there is a crash. Then there is government intervention that will fail. Then there will be a move down to the low point of the secular cycle. May guess is we have 8 to 10 years, maybe more, to go as this plays out. I'm just saying, know the secular trend you are in and then adjust your game play to fit that secular trend.

    Mainly though, I'm going to focus on getting ready for a proxy fight with CRY. Outcome unknown. It will be interesting though. I will probably make a few dollars no matter what happens. My guess though is the SGA thinks he can win. My bet is that we will keep the current management team and ultimately sell Medafor to a bigger player in about 3 years.

    Let the game begin.

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    • Well, if Medafor stays independent and gets acquired by someone else three years from now, then CRY will have to benefit greatly because their position in Medafor stock will be worth a lot more at that time. However, most likely, CRY will merge Medafor into the fold sometime within the next six months or so. After that, CRY will probably close down operations in the far north, and move everything into their facility in Georgia that is only operating at five percent of capacity right now. Of course, most executives should be dismissed. Employees will probably be retained if they don't object to working in the Atlanta area.

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