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CryoLife Inc. Message Board

  • dlhild Sep 14, 2010 7:05 PM Flag

    $6.50 Wall - Part 3

    11. Until things get straightened out, the $5 to $7 range seems quite reasonable to me. Others may believe SGA's story and believe the stock price should be higher. I'm guessing I will buy this stock in the future sometime at around $5, but if not there are a lot of probably better choices to look into.

    12. Some management metrics are set forth below.

    Based upon a comparison of CRY's stock performance, relative to the S&P 500 over similar periods, it would appear that CRY's management team is currently under performing the general market. See below.

    3 Month Comparision:^GSPC

    6 Month Comparison:^GSPC

    1 Year Comparison:^GSPC

    2 Year Comparison:^GSPC

    5 Year Comparison:^GSPC

    Maximum Comparison:^GSPC

    Note: If this does not link, go to Yahoo and compare CRYs stock charts to the S&P 500. Alternatively, copy these links into your brouser. These are my favorite management metrics.

    CRY Market Cap = $173 million

    CRY Sales (Estimated CY 2010) = $118 million

    Market Cap./Sales Ratio = 1.5 times

    Note: I would guess that a "ball park" medical industry "Market Cap. /Sales Ratio" would be 3, or higher. Hence, it would appear that by this metric too, CRY's management is under performing. I would further contend that SGA is one reason, along with others, as to why this ratio is low and deserves to stay there. Get rid of SGA, bring more certainty to future sales, and CRY's stock price may move higher. The tissue business adversely affects this ratio too. In fact tissue could be a big part of why the ratio is this low.

    13. The entire market was a bull from 1982 until early 2000. Early 2000 was the inflection point. From 2000 to the present, the overall market trend has been bearish. Incomes are flat to lower (except for the very wealthy) and wealth is being destroyed. The bear has just been playing with us so far. However, the bear will rip our heads off before too long. Hence, the majority of stocks are going to be lower in a few months (or years). When that happens, CRY will be lower too.

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