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CryoLife Inc. Message Board

  • dlhild@ymail.com dlhild Aug 24, 2012 12:12 PM Flag

    Catch 22 Continued:

    Unfortunate Facts

    The unfortunate fact of the matter is everyone need to work to pay off accumulated debts and meet living expenses, but the jobs are not there.

    The second unfortunate fact is we cannot afford and do not need all of the existing government jobs.

    The third unfortunate fact is demographics are no longer favorable. Indeed, there are too few jobs, too much student debt, and too few workers supporting too many retirees on Social Security.

    Those unfortunate facts happen to be highly deflationary.

    Demographic Time Bomb

    For a graphical representation of point number three above, please see Demographic Time Bomb in Pictures and Dollar Amounts; Ratio of Social Security Beneficiaries to Private Employment Now Exceeds 50%

    Consequences

    Much pain awaits the US.
    Public worker pension promises have been made that cannot possibly be delivered.
    The US simply cannot afford to be world's policeman. Military spending must come down or it will destroy us.
    Medicare and Social Security problems must be addressed as well.
    Upcoming generations are highly likely to see a drop in standard of living vs. the baby boomers. This has never happened in US history.
    Heartaches by the Number

    Please consider Heartaches by the Number

    Just 14% expect today’s children to be better off than their parents
    Just 31% believe the U.S. economy will be stronger in one year
    Just 27% think the country is heading in the right direction.
    Just 24% of American Adults believe the job market is better than a year ago
    44% think the job market is worse, up 15 points from June
    Demographics Suggest Majority is Right

    I happen to agree with the majority who think those now graduating from high school will not be better off than their parents.

    There are too few jobs, too much student debt, and too few workers supporting too many retirees on Social Security.

    Who Will Address the Problems?

    As I look out on the political landscape, I see little hope that either Republicans or Democrats will address these problems.

    Republicans refuse to address the income side of the balance sheet, and Democrats refuse to address the spending side.

    Neither party is willing to tackle military spending.

    How long the market lets these can-kicking exercises continue is anyone's guess, but the longer this goes on, the more pain there will be.

    The culmination will be a currency crisis at some point down the road. Timing is very problematic. Japan proves debt-to-GDP ratios may go on much further than anyone thinks possible.

    Source: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

    Bonds are going to go lower at some point when interest rates go higher.

    Equity P/E's are going to go lower, because slow growth results in slower EPS growth (over time), resulting in lower P/E's generally. This is the downward force on CRY shares. The upward force on CRY shares in a multi-year picture of improving earnings, unless SA again messes up something new.

    Just opinions. Do your own due diligence.

 
CRY
10.21+0.07(+0.69%)Sep 19 4:08 PMEDT

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