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CryoLife Inc. Message Board

  • dlhild Oct 15, 2012 2:48 PM Flag

    Q3 2012 EPS WAG = $0.07

    Rrroach76, I hope you get your health issues under control.

    I’ve updated my Q3 numbers, which I fully admit are a crap shoot WAG, but my numbers are better than anything the analysts have come up with lately. So here goes.

    Q2 revenues were $33,188,000.

    I’m guessing that CRY will come in with Q3 revenues that are just a tad higher than last quarter’s number. One consistent thing about SA, he loves starting the call by saying “record sales, record sales, record sales”. To be specific, I’m going to guess Q3 revenues will be roughly $33,290,000.

    We know from looking backwards that the gross profit percentage is likely to be about 64.5%. So far things are pretty simple. So if we have Q3 revenues of $33,290,000 and a gross profit percentage of 64.5%, we pretty much know that the gross margin profit is going to be roughly $21,472,000. Now here is where the real WAG work comes in. It is very difficult to guess what the quarterly total operating expense number will be. Many variables affect the total operating expense number. If the total operating expense number comes in at $18,300,000, EPS for Q3 will be $0.07. If the total operating expense number comes in at $18,800,000, EPS for Q3 will be $0.06. If the total operating expense number comes in at $19,400,000, EPS for Q3 will be $0.05. If the total operating expense number comes in at $19,800,000, EPS for Q3 will be $0.04. I think this is the way the numbers work anyway. I’m going to WAG that the total operating expense number for Q3 is going to come in at roughly $18,800,000, which means EPS should be $0.06. Who knows, but this is better than the analysts will do for you. If I’m wrong, oh well that has been the story of my life. Another way for CRY to improve EPS by a penny would be if the gross margin jumped from 64.5% to 64.7% (possible). In summary then, I’m expecting Q3 2012 EPS of $0.07.

    Also, I’m presently estimating CY 2013, CY 2014, CY 2015, and CY 2016 EPS numbers of $0.40, $0.50, $0.61, and $0.74 respectively. These should be pretty easy EPS numbers for the management team to meet. I think they can reach these EPS numbers even if they never have a dollar of U.S. PerClot sales. If they can in fact sell PerClot in the U.S. someday, then the numbers here would need to be materially bumped up. Hence, while CRY is not dirt cheap right now, IMO it is valued quite reasonably. Also, CRY is likely to have “flash in the pan” moments going forward.

    Also, I continue to think that SA is going to TRY to salvage his sordid 16 year stock performance history, $16 in 1996 to $6 in 2012 (even worse after factoring in inflation over the 16 year period). Whether SA can successfully do this is yet to be determined, because 16 years of failure is not exactly a metric supporting future success.

    The foregoing was based on WAGS, WAGS, and WAGS. Do your own due diligence.

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