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CryoLife Inc. Message Board

  • dlhild Nov 8, 2012 11:51 AM Flag

    Support & Resistance Point Guesses:

    CRY stock presently at $5.81

    Resistance at $6.05 (I don't see any other resistance levels at this time)

    Moderate Support at $5.70

    Moderate Support at $5.40

    Moderate to Strong Support at $5.00

    I'm guessing that CRY will test the $5.70 support level, because it is almost doing so right now. Whether that level holds who knows, but I doubt it. I think we may get down and perhaps test the $5.00 support level, lower if this support level would not hold. This may take a little time though. The market is generally weak right now. It is digesting the election, the fiscal cliff, the European situation, Iran, and you name it. About 75% of the Europeans favored Obama. I think they pushed back their bad news until after the election, in order to improve his odds of getting elected. That bad news is coming out now too. The big question is whether the Republicans and Democrats can both move more toward the center, be reasonable people, and get some real work done for a change. We can only hope. The fiscal cliff is 4% of GDP. GDP is $16 trillion. Hence, the fiscal cliff tax increases couple with spending cuts would total roughly $640 billion/year. If Washington were to slam on the brakes like this right away, it would seriously harm the economy. It would put millions more people out of work, plus delay businesses from making necessary decisions. They need to come up with a gradual increase in taxes (at some level) and a gradual (decrease in spending) at some level. The situation is so bad though, their job will be a difficult one. Overall, I think the cake is baked, and valuations are going lower no matter what. CRY will more or less move with the out going tide. The lower valuations will probably be caused by slowing grow in the economy, which translates through to slower growth in corporate earnings, which over time translates through as lower P/E ratios, which translates through as lower equity prices. I'm pretty sure the tide is going out, which will lower all equities. From 1982 to March 2000, equities went up. At that point, they reached the highest valuation point ever for the U.S. markets. However, March 2000 was an inflection point where equities started coming down (at least in inflation adjusted terms). We are still going down this hill, and I suspect will be on the down hill for at least 4 plus more years. Note in this regard, Bush 2 was never going to be a president that looked good anyway. Even if 9/11 and some of his other mistakes not happened, the tide started moving out during March 2000, and h was never going to be able to change that fact. Obama too has the same problem, the tide is still going out and will go out for at least 4 more years, probably for several years after 2016 too. It may be the early 20's before we start getting these things sorted out better. Things take time.

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