I've seen it a million times with one-hit wonders like this. They will eventually be demolished by copy-cat products. Theres nothing special whatsoever about their blend or their machines, anyone can do it. I rode CROX all the way down from $70/share to $2/share. I will do the same with GMCR. Much like the CROX longs, the GMCR longs will say "this time is different!!"...but it never is with one-hit wonders.
The proper comparison is Gillette which is now part of Proctor and Gamble. In just a few more days about 60,000 to 100,000 people are going to be given new razors and one new pack of blades that will last about 2 weeks, before they go out and reload. Add on top of that a little whipped cream, $.06 royalty per each non GMCR Kcup. The shorts have a real bad case of the sheep flu and a couple of analysts on the street should be thinking about admitting their ridiculous ratings and awful advice.
HUGE difference between CROX and GMCR. Copycats hurt CROX some, but what also hurt them is they are no longer in style (as ugly as they are). They grew a lot based on the buzz, unique, etc.
GMCR is different. GMCR has a 80% market on the single serve coffee market. Along with its patents, people invested $100+ in their brewers and many get their K-Cups auto-shipped. There are competitors now, but their product isn't nearly as good, and GMCR is doing everything right with marketing and distribution.
There were many naysayers in the 80's and 90's saying MSFT is doomed with Windows. MSFT fared pretty well, because they were innovative and built up an INSTALLED BASE of computers with Windows OS, so people grew accustomed to it, etc. Keurig brewers are the installed base and will guarantee GMCR growth for MANY years to come. GLTA.