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Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. Message Board

  • solidsurfacecountertop solidsurfacecountertop Oct 12, 2010 8:37 PM Flag

    Green Mountain Coffee - A Takeover Target?

    The question is, who would acquire GMCR?

    Some possibilities are the usual giants in the consumer products category -- Procter and Gamble, Unilever, Kraft Foods, Nestle, Pepsico, Mars, and Coca-Cola.

    GMCR target price $39/share in cash.

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    • This stock is a time bomb and the more research that you do the more you will find that it is a ticking time bomb that WILL EXPLODE, it's just a question of when. Why would someone buy this company if their patent's expire in less then two years? Furthermore why would someone buy a company that is under investigation buy the SEC? Is GMCR coming out with new products? Are they buying up other companies or investing in other technologies? If you can answer these questions, you will come to the conclusion that GMCR at 60X forward earnings is a JOKE! 20x forward earnings would put the stock around 21 and that is still at JOKE in my mind. Soon enough all the data will come out and GMCR will trade where it belongs at $15 a share, and their so called ridicules growth that has been reported by them will be shown for what it is a LIE and a JOKE! They have been lying to investors and the company needs to pay for this!!! Do not be long this stock!!

      In 2012, we need to consider the competition waiting to pounce on this incredibly profitable market niche. Maxwell House and Folgers no doubt have the capabilities of reproducing the single serve system and can produce Kcups that could be used in Keurig pots if the patents expire and allow it. The Kcups look fairly simple and the best science minds in coffee at these big competitors will be all over it when it is legal.

      The company’s active acquisition spree of licensees, which appeared to peak earlier this month with the announced acquisition of Van Houtte, a Canadian coffee maker — adding more than $1 billion to its debt. In addition, two key K-Cup patents expire in 2012. Analysts at Stifel Nicoulas said they believed Van Houtte’s license is transferable, which would allow a third party to manufacture their own branded K-Cups without needing Green Mountain’s permission. “We believe the acquisition of Van Houtte and other royalty partners is an expensive way to postpone competition but not prevent its eventual existence,” the analysts wrote.

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