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Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. Message Board

  • nuke9101 nuke9101 Oct 31, 2010 8:59 AM Flag

    Hey shorts

    Do you freakin dopes realize the inventory at M block and Sons is GMCR's inventory? M block is a fullfillment house, not really the customer..GMCR can't ship stuff to m block and recognize revenue...they don't recognize revenue until it leaves the docks at M bock to the leading retailers in the nation like BBBY and most major departments stores.

    As anyone has seen over the past 3 years, the scope of business and inventory at BBBY has grown dramatically. so to does the inventory to support this. BBBY is not growing this presence and invenory bet becasue the product doesn't sell but because they can't keep it stock due to such strong sell through.

    until you see k cups and brewers at TJ Max or a close out liquidator...or at a massive Florida flea market you can like rest assured their is not a bunch of excess inentory out there.

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    • The products are flying out the door in bulk sales to MBlock (wholesaler/distributor) then being sold/shipped to individual retail stores. Who cares about the few pennies on the few days worth of A/R or Inventory in the bigger picture. GMCR/Keurig is a disruptive game changer in the coffee world. Are people starting to quit drinking coffee? Or change back to percolators, presses and drip pots? I think even a caveman can figure this one out.

      bump.

    • Nukes- perhaps you are right and perhaps you are wrong.
      Awhile ago I discussed a different industry that I am famiiar with.

      The beverage alcohol industry. Here the importers\distillers ship to their wholesales\distributors and are paid at that point. The Wholesalers in turn sell to the trade and collect their money. This has gone on since prohibition.

      I imagine other industries might or might not follow suit.

      I am not in anyway saying you are wrong, you are probaly right. However I have been a shareholder since 2007 and never have I seen this topic addressed.

      Perhaps I missed something either from the company or from the very well inmformed posters who do much research on this board.

      Again nit arguing with you but can you show me something that indicates how this is handled by GMCR other than opinions?

      Enlighten me!

      • 1 Reply to thoughful14
      • well, M block and sons is a fullfillment house.. been around a lot of years...instead of building self distribution...many companeis that make kitchen electrics use fullfillment houses for two readons 1) the business is highly seasonal (christmas) 2) it makes no sense to build your own distribution centers for very small shipments to thousands of retailer dors...best to use a company that can aggregate many many orders one truck for various retailers... The bigger GMCR's grocery business gets or Wal Marts they will use mroe of the traditional grocery store distributors whose accounting is without a doubt settle science...like you mention in the adult beverage business. As I have said before...a lot of big box business for M block and GMCR is highly seasonal large orders for holiday. I think the sec is seeing if orders from retailers match up with GMCR crossing sales trades to M block onto the retailer...as the sec gets a better understanding of who the end customers are (big well known retailers) who are clearly selling the product and payment can reasonably assured (ie bbby certainly pays their bills) the SEC will likely have no more questions and move along.

        once again I want to reiterate that it's the sell through data at retail and our obvious observations of how much hte product has grown at the retaielers over the past 3 years that should given everyone comfort here that this inquisition will at some point pass ...we just don't know when...and it is not out of the question the SEC will knee cap them one more time...with some change required or extra disclosures but if that were too happen ....the stock would get whalloped but it woiuld likeely be the Mother of all buying oppoertunities....and if it doesn't happen the stock is $50-60 in 12-18 months...

    • nuke ur kooky better chance with romance or booky spooky ; been watering down the coffee green tea better than this reef; better get another dime these bell don't chime or rhyme.
      accounting escapes thee drink more passion tea get ride of those fees biting at you eagerly make you beggarly.

      (-:)

    • 1) Syntax-Brillian had millions of TVs in many retail outlets and they declared bankruptcy, so the fact there is a large inventory STORED in warehouses means squat
      2) M Block carries inventory for any number of organizations at least half a dozen prolly many more than that
      3)If its in a warehouse its not being bought by retail consumers.

      You read like the Kool-Aid crowd that refused to accept Syntax-Brilians fate, even after declaring bankruptcy they swore all would be well.

      Well, Green Mountain has a multitude of class actions to satisfy due to their admitting accounting irregularities, millions to settle that and an SEC investigation that appears to lingering on quite a while is sure to instill confidence.

      A balance sheet with $600MM of NOTHING BUT AIR and revenue tht will have to be restated.

      This stock is suited for freakin DOPES like you.

      • 1 Reply to kowalczyk147999
      • sytax brillian had no sell through at retail...nobody bought the product. leading to a cash crunch...leads to chapter 11...GMCR has massive sell through at retail...do you get out and see the stores?....

        all the pieces in the field are there for longs and shorts to figure this out...go to stores...talk to people..see the product selling...missing items on the shelf as inventory is taken to check out and paid for....then on a pro level seeing IRI and NPD data from scanners at check outs... growth mostly 55 to 100% every month this year.. this is un deniable truth that shorts must confess BLOWS their thesis out of the water...then most just fall back on "It's and expensive stock"....but for razor razor blades business...its really really cheap..sorry once again, especially if you look out just one year

        Is The Lavazza family been dupped? the Former coke CEO on the board been dupped? Has the Folgers people been sucked ito a fraud? are the worlds biggest retailers sucked into a scam....one has to believe that lots of smart people accross many levels of many organizations are fools...for the shorts to get his right

        I have the product in my house and my office...I can attest that their is at least one real customer in the world.

        For one to believe this is not a really solid company the lesson will be painful over time....There could be one more out of left field letter from the SEC...because they got an axe to grind and gotta get somethign to save face...but this is the most successful product launch in consumer land since the orignal Mr. Coffee and still...many think its a joke...but not proven right thus far and to get back to even on the short side...it has to be a scam.....investing pride is killing many shorts ( I am too smart to get his wrong!!)...admit you either are wrong and haven't done the work or you are sticking to your hail mary thesis that the SEC will save your pride and your short position.

        my advice..understand what IRI and NPD is 2) go to stores 3) try the product 4) looke at what other companies in coffee have for margins 5) ask your self what is the probability coffee is a bad business to be in?

    • Actually, as fas I know GMCR does invoice MBlock on shipment to their premises. Here is a quote from Vermont Biz -

      "focused on the relationship between Green Mountain and its fulfillment vendors, including M Block & Sons Inc. (which accounted for 51 percent of the accounts receivable last year)"

      http://www.vermontbiz.com/news/october/green-mountain-coffee-facing-slew-lawsuits

      In order for there to be receivables, they have to invoice.

      The main question as I understand it may deal with inventory invoiced but not shipped to MBlock. Apparently this is OK if requested by MBlock because of their inability to store the
      product on their premises. If not requested by MBlock, it is regarded as "pumping sales".

      • 1 Reply to amer_enterprises
      • difference between paperwork/invoices/ and recognizing revenue. of course there should be some record of receiving the merchandise from GMCR from an internal control standpoint. but is clear that the most conservative way to recognize revenue is to only do it when it leaves the m block docks for BBBY and others...WHICH IS Exactly what the proecedure is...and once again...what are the odds that all the other manufacturers who use m block AND their auditors would be using wildly different techniques to recognize revenue...probability is ZERO.

        the ideas that GMCR, its auditors, and the SEC thus far would allow a company to ship to a black hole weaerhouse inventory and declare it revenue is utterly preposterous......every company in the WORLD would use M block to "make the quarter" and MBLOCK would have to have MULTI TRILLION DOllar bank line to buy this inventory and hold it on their shelves...ONLY A FOOL would believe this is the truth...but that is what many posters on this boarad believe and many shorts (hedge fund run by smart people)

        GMCR has not even had a down month in the market since this SEC letter was known. imagine how frustrating it must be that the shorts that momemtum shorted this on the break are now all underwaters again.

 
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