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Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. Message Board

  • sas912@prodigy.net sas912 Nov 14, 2010 9:30 AM Flag

    When silence is not golden

    As of at least 2006, GMCR was an accelerated filer under SEC rules:
    http://www.123jump.com/10K_Reports/GMCR/2006/2006.htm

    Based upon the SEC requirements, GMCR now meets the definition of "large accelerated filer" and has for at least 2 full years, so 2010 is the 3d year that they meet that definition. "All subsequent reports on Form 10-K and 10-Q by the accelerated filer will be subject to a 60 and 35-day deadline, respectively." http://www.sec.gov/rules/final/33-8128.htm

    So as I read this, they had 35 days to make the 10-Q report for 4Qtr 2010 and until Nov. 29th to make the 10-K for 2010 (assuming a year end of 9/30 which some here have questioned and there is some evidence that the FY ended on 9/26). In adopting the changes to reporting requirements, the SEC notes say that it is attempting to balance the need for accurate reporting against the investors' need for timely information on which to base financial/investment decisions.

    As of this morning, there is still no announcement as to when GMCR will report either 4Qtr earnings for 2010 or their FY 2010 results. This silence by mgmt is increasing the uneasiness of investors, large and small, in this company, which I believe led to the crushing of the price at the end of this past week. The longer the silence, the stronger the impression that mgmt is concerned about the results and concerned about the market reaction to them.

    Unless GMCR mgmt has some "rabbit" that they are going to pull out of the hat when they ultimately do report which will stun the financial markets and the retail investors and rocket the stock price upwards, the sad reality is that the longer they wait to report the more it appears that there will be bad news that will impact the stock price. If they are going to report on the 60th day, just make the announcement and say that's when earnings will be released. But end the uncertainty and the speculation which each day causes investors to wonder why they did not release earnings when one investment broker or another said that earnings would be released.

    All of us who are long in the stock and who follow this company know that management is juggling a lot of balls in the air right now, but that cannot take a backseat to their duty to provide investors with timely information.

    "Bad news is bad news, whenever it comes." Marion Loxley from Robinhood. So IF management ever reads this Board, I implore them to set a date to release earnings. Based on what I interpret the SEC rules to be, they are already late in filing the 10-Q for 4th Qtr 2010. If it's bad news, the stock will take a hit but you can't change what has aleady happened; hopefully the company can recover by the end of 1Qtr 2011.

    Just this long's opinion.

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    • <<So as I read this, they had 35 days to make the 10-Q report for 4Qtr 2010 and until Nov. 29th to make the 10-K for 2010 (assuming a year end of 9/30 which some here have questioned and there is some evidence that the FY ended on 9/26). In adopting the changes to reporting requirements, the SEC notes say that it is attempting to balance the need for accurate reporting against the investors' need for timely information on which to base financial/investment decisions.>>

      Everyone keeps getting this wrong and acting like GMCR is late for Q4 2010. I previously posted the link to the SEC website explanation. The shorter period (35 days) applies to FY quarters one through three, the longer period applies to FYQ4 and Fiscal Year End. There is no 35 day (or quarterly reporting deadline) for Q4, it is all rolled into FY longer period.

      If you think about, this also is logical. If you have Q4 numbers done and reported, why would you have a longer period to do FYE? If Q4 numbers are final, it is simple math to do FY End numbers.

      GLTA

      • 2 Replies to Saltman512
      • sas912@prodigy.net sas912 Nov 15, 2010 9:26 AM Flag

        I stand corrected on the 10-Q for 4Qtr but it does not change my view that mgmt should just end the speculation and post that they will announce on the last day. End of discussion. No more speculation, no more false rumors, no more let downs. Put an end to the guessing, which is what the changes in the SEC reporting rules stressed: give investors timely information. It's the silence that is of concern, the complete lack of information and comment and of course in the meantime, Michelle Stacy has sold another 10,000 shares which is adding fuel to the speculation fires.

      • Here is cut and paste of my earlier post with SEC info verifying on separate deadline for the Q4 report, it is the year end deadline (60 days for GMCR from FYE, which was 9-26-2010)

        I did some further research and have verified that compnaies do NOT have to file a 10Q at end of Q4/FYE. All they have to file at Fiscal Year End is a 10-k. Here are the instructions from the SEC website for 10q forms that verify this:

        Form 10-Q shall be used for quarterly reports under Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (15 U.S.C. 78m or 78o(d)), filed pursuant to Rule 13a-13 (17 CFR 240.13a-13) or Rule 15d-13 (17 CFR 240.15d-13). A quarterly report on this form pursuant to Rule 13a-13 or Rule 15d-13 shall be filed within the following period after the end of each of the first three fiscal quarters of each fiscal year, but no report need be filed for the fourth quarter of any fiscal year:
        a.
        40 days after the end of the fiscal quarter for large accelerated filers and accelerated filers (as defined in 17 CFR § 240.12b-2) ;and
        b.
        45 days after the end of the fiscal quarter for all other registrants.

        As to Timeframes: GMCR is a large accelerated filer, so it has the shortest times. 40 days for 10Q after end of quarter, and 60 days for 10K after FYE. FYE for GMCR is 9-26-2010, so I calculate the drop dead 60 day timeframe as ending on Nov 26 (Friday after Thanksgiving). Last year GMCR reported on Nov 11. IF you want my wild guess, I think they will report next week about mid week (seems like they have liked Weds lately), which means we should get a PR this week announcing the date.

        GLTA Rating :
        (No ratings)

    • Time will tell, it always does. I'm guessing they pull rabbit out of the hat, delay based on acquisitions.

    • I too am unhappy about their failure to report in a timely manner. But everything, retail store stock levels and results at Starbucks, Peets and Caribou, points to outstanding results. Perhaps management is just double and triple checking the numbers and getting advice on procedures from a number of accounting firms before they publish their results. Or they could also be waiting for a ruling from the SEC on the inquiry.

      Regardless, I doubt if any investors in this company have sold because of the delay. We have faith in the long term success of the company and though this delay is making us nervous we would have not held this long if we did not believe. Do we or the company care what happens to speculators?

      I think they will announce this coming week that the earnings release will be after market close on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. That will give the market four days to absorb the news.

    • Very well written. In my opinion, if they were delaying the report for any negative reason, they'd do exactly as you'd prefer to see: pick the latest possible date already and just announce it.

      The fact they haven't brings up the possibility, perhaps even the probability, that the delay is in hopes of something positive being resolved at some imminent moment. This could be the SEC issue resolution, a buyout, whatever...if they don't know when it will finally go down, then they wouldn't want to pick a date that makes them later want to change the date to announce the good news sooner (because then the original date announcement would end up having been false.)

      Maybe this is a stretch, but I can't honestly think of any other plausible scenario for the delay.

      So we wait.

 
GMCR
119.95-0.73(-0.60%)Jul 28 4:00 PMEDT

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