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Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. Message Board

  • porker3333 porker3333 Jun 23, 2011 2:37 PM Flag

    ANOTHER QUESTION OUR ITALIAN FRIEND..

    BARAVALLE MIGHT want to ask in addition to phony sales / return accounting, is why are the officers and directors tripping over themselves to sell stock at $68 that they excersised options for $6 and change when his company Lavazzao had the privledge of paying in the $70's. What about the retail clowns who buy in the $80's? MAMMA MIA!!! REGARDS, ALL

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    • You may have noticed a couple of my earlier posts, since I see you referring to the term I used, "cheer leaders", of whom "Thoughtful" is a good example, although he is not so much a paid basher, as an anxious vigilante, patrolling this board to counter anyone and anything he perceives as threatening to his long position.

      The facts about GMCR have been documented many times, including by me, as opposed to the hype of longs who gloat because it goes up. I won't repeat most of the facts here.

      This is a "story" stock, a "MO Mo stock", going up because it is going up. There are many examples of this phenomenon in the past, Kristy Creme a good example, among many others. We were told you have to buy that one at 40, on its why to 3, remember?

      These types of companies promise growth for a basic product as far as the eye can see, especially when it cannot actually be verified. They've got a story, aseemingly plausible one attached, "we're the Gillette of the coffee business", one which is bought hook, line and sinker by 26 year old analysts, who have no historical perspective, or axes to grind, like Canaccord Genuity.
      These analysts always raise their "price targets", a truly nonsense concept, to the moon at or close to the top.
      So you have the little buyers scrambling to purchase at 84, while the insider dump at 68, and even more so in the secondary at 71. Does retail know more than these people? Do they understand the concept of dilution?

      Today, the volume was actually light, mostly retail
      200 share buyers, with occasional efforts by market makers to squeeze shorts. Whenever the stock starts to flag, there are stories about SBUX buying them, Lavazza coming over to buy them", etc.

      The SBUX buying them story pushed the stock up from 32 to 42.
      The venture with SBUX, which is devoid of details and has not produced a dime of revenue yet,pushed it from 42 to 66. "Surprise" "earnings", dropping the PE down to mid 70's, pushed the PPS to the mid 70's. Short covering to mid-80's.

      All of this is on the come. The stock is actually the poster boy for excess liquidity and rampant speculation.
      Notwithstanding the gloating of longs who should be selling, and the possibility that this can even go higher, one year from now it is a $35-40 stock at best.
      GMCR is one nasty revelation from reality.
      These situations always end badly.

      Institutions, contrary to general notions, are not always that smart.
      They will abandon this stock, as soon as the real facts, competition, phony accounting for true sales, rather than shifting product to a captive "fulfillment partner" (what is that?), come out.
      Attacking the messenger,like Eddie Antar, rather than dealing with his unanswered message, can only go so far.

      It will take time, as much as 6 months, maybe more, until the idea that you can also sell soda through KCUPS, is revealed as the hype it truly is.

      • 1 Reply to sinjay56
      • Sinjay,

        Couldn't agree more! Saw the same thing with TZOO this year and with CROX a few years ago. The cheerleaders waving the pom-poms the whole time as the stock comes crashing down. But it all comes down to the timing. Shorted too soon with CROX got squeezed and missed a good portion of the down swing. Waited 2 extra months with GMCR to start shorting. I think we're seeing a double top here. But I've been wrong before....- JP

    • Do you honestly believe if the SEC saw anything illegal with the financial, that they would have jumped and fined GMCR by now. It has been about 10 months. One thing for sure, the government is slow to respond to disasters, the economy and a recession, but when it comes to get money, they trip over themselves to get it.

      • 2 Replies to paula651
      • that the govt is slow and (inept I might add) to spot things and respond. However, the SEC is unique in that they operate a revolving door there. Today's regulator is tomorrow's public company exec or a big brokerage firm hotshot. Shareholders who think they are protected are smoking something. Actually, it will be SHAREHOLDER LAWSUITS eventually that will wake up management to SMELL THE COFFEE so to speak. As far as tools are concerned, the SEC can ask for a re-statement, if they find a pattern they can do a civil fraud 10b-5, or they can go even further and refer to Justice for criminal charges. REGARDS, ST. PAUL

      • that the govt is slow and (inept I might add) to spot things and respond. However, the SEC is unique in that they operate a revolving door there. Today's regulator is tomorrow's public company exec or a big brokerage firm hotshot. Shareholders who think they are protected are smoking something. Actually, it will be SHAREHOLDER LAWSUITS eventually that will wake up management to SMELL THE COFFEE so to speak. As far as tools are concerned, the SEC can ask for a re-statement, if they find a pattern they can do a civil fraud 10b-5, or they can go even further and refer to Justice for criminal charges. REGARDS, ST. PAUL

 
GMCR
85.34-0.89(-1.03%)Jun 2 4:00 PMEDT