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Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. Message Board

  • lezakjeff lezakjeff Sep 16, 2011 12:51 PM Flag

    New to bd just shorted 107.6

    I made a ton shorting NFLX and got out today with 10's of thousands of gains.

    Sorting 800 shs. We shall see. I am not going to let it run more than to 115 before bailing. Brand new to this stock though of course have heard of it. If it grows 38% for 5 yrs like analysts say, it would be trading at an 18 multipe which is extremly optomistic. Cannot see how coffee is another google. I expect to lose but had to take a chance,

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    • sas912 Sep 19, 2011 4:31 PM Flag

      Good luck with your shorting strategy. This Board is littered with the corpses of shorts who took a run at GMCR. All I can tell you is that this stock often runs contrary to the overall market, like today, and just when people think that the stock can't go any higher, it does. So good luck to you. I'd rather be long, as I am, and not have to worry about it.

    • That's an interesting trading psychology you're applying there, "expecting to lose". Good luck with that.

      BTW, it's thanks to shorts like you who really have no clue as to the risk you're taking in shorting GMCR that we longs have been able to enjoy some really exhilarating short squeezes over the years. Thanks in advance for your contribution!

    • AMZN is so setup for a fall. Apple will launch a streaming iTunes music/movie offering that will change the game on Amazon and preserve its Walled Garden. AMZN will sell tablets at cost and still not generate significant incremental content related earnings.

    • I'm going to watch AMZN Monday at the open. Looks like a tech break out. If you draw lots of pretty lines, some will suggest some resistance here, then 245 ish and then again 256. We'll see. You have to admit that many people shop around now and then go home and buy on AMZN so they can get a good price, plus read reviews. I'm guilty of that. Have a good weekend.

    • Sorry to the board for the fully off topic conversation. I just don't want to see good people get hurt...

      Good luck PJ.

    • Tech,

      Thank you again. I will take your advice. I don't think your tax would ever be passed but would go a long way to smooth out the volatility. Not to mention used to pay down some of this debt. - Pj

    • Sorry, I've mainly been active on this and AMZN. I strongly doubt it will run that far. But, the way the market has been functioning is for stocks to make moves that defy reason. Rational people pile on one way or another and get slaughtered.

      Unless and until we put a $.10 per trade transaction tax (yes $.10) OR the institutional longs decide to rebalance portfolios continuously to counter the HFT, this volatility and dynamic will remain.

      I REALLY don't think it runs that far. I just hate to see people get washed out by the bots. I want man to beat machine...

      So, buy a smaller position than you otherwise would (25% of what you were going to do) just in the money ($240 puts). If it moves badly against you, double the position OOM (let it run to $250 or so). From there, mark to market whenever it takes a 5 point or more run. If you do this with discipline, you will LIKELY (but not definitely) make money on the short...

    • Tech,

      Thanks a bunch! Was thinking of buying some 240 sept puts for a little sell off at the close but will scrap that idea. Short of looking at the volume everyday is there some where you can see the volume history of a given call/put? And no I can't take a push to 275! So perhaps some out of the money puts a few months out with limited risk is more in my wheelhouse. Btw, nice move from AAPL today. - PJ

      sorry in advance to everyone for bringing this on the GMCR board, just didn't see Tech over there to ask him.

    • In addition to shorting stocks you believe are overvalued, do you also go long on stocks you think are undervalued?

      • 3 Replies to barefootboywithcheek
      • Yes, although you need to be aware of this risks. When both sides move against you, it can really hurt. You need to manage in a way that allows you to handle anti-correlated action between the long and short side.

        You also need to be VERY careful not to chase on either side. Let them run, make significant moves without any true justification and then mark to the money.

        I'm rebalancing now. Still have the same views here, but AMZN just took over top spot on my target list...

      • No its much easier to short.. I use large quanbties of money but do not allow myself to lose more than a couple of per cent. Basically day trade. My only problem is when I am wrong which happens 1/2 the time I say I am willing to lose 2k and wind up losing 10.. This happens 1 or of 10 times. Still am making money. the more I can correct this the more I will make. In the past I lost huge 3xs in my life by not accepting losses. That I found is the key. do not be afraid of losing but when you are short term wrong just take it unless its a smaller position and then you can hang in there.

      • I think you made the right decision,

        I can see on LEVEL III there are around 468000 shares which needs to be sold ( or sell short ) @ $108.25 which is impossible.

        No one wants to buy GMCR anymore.

        So good decision .

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