when did Keurig start selling reusable fikters for breweing your own?
Probably been around for awhile, but I just saw it for the first time at Target for $17. While I suspect it had to do it to manage cannibalization, I can't really see this as a good thing for Keurig. On the upside, it does make me more interested in buying a system (about $200 including the reusable filter), but on the more important dowside, it makes it trivially easy to use real SBUX coffee at $12/lb rather than GMCR Kcups or SBUX Kcups. As the economy tightens, I suspect far more people will use the reusable filter and save some bucks... given that GMCR planned to make its money from the razorblades, so to speak, having people use fresh ground bulk coffee (most people drink plain coffee and not the myriad random flavors -- its a classic Pareto distribution) could really hurt profits in the future.
Well, we will see if I made a mistake rebalancing (everyone seems to think it has broken down and if they are right, I picked an inopportune time to lighten, but such is life). I still think the classic quant play here is to squeeze early next month on the BOM capital inflows and try for a run into earnings, especially since all the CNBC pundits were recommending bear spreads...
I'm actually considering going long for a few weeks, especially if it breaks hard on Monday am. Pick it up on the bounce and stay long as long is it holds the entry price. But hopefully for a 15-20 dollar run into earnings. It's now broke thru the 50 dma for the second time. Stocks that run as strong as this one will breakthru 3-4 times before finally falling apart. And there will always be a catalyst, some bad news that comes from the company. With NFLX it was the raising of the rates. I haven't heard anything new from the company to make me think that this is the final drop. Especially after all the negative news on CNBC/media...just setting people up for some more short squeezing. - PJ
Thanks. I have considered the possibility of a run into earnings and positioned myself to profit from one. Having said that, while I "reposition", I haven't ever changed my core position on any of these stocks. I believe the LT direction is down from here. So, if it runs hard into earnings, I will adjust my strike and add to my position there. I don't mind being down a little along the way.
Truth be told, I will be trying a new strategy the next few weeks. I have a gut feeling about a new pattern I've seen emerging of late. If I'm correct, I'll make a bunch more. If I'm wrong, I'll give some upside. Next week should be interesting.
"While I suspect it had to do it to manage cannibalization, I can't really see this as a good thing for Keurig. On the upside, it does make me more interested in buying a system (about $200 including the reusable filter), but on the more important dowside, it makes it trivially easy to use real SBUX coffee at $12/lb rather than GMCR Kcups or SBUX Kcups."
I think you are behind the 8-ball--again. Here you are speculating about the my k-cup, how it can't be good for Keurig, they had to do it for cannibalization, etc. You are wrong on all counts--it has been there since the beginning--through all of Keurig's phenomenal run--so all your speculation is just flat WRONG. Heck, Keurig even puts it in the bundle pack when you buy a brewer at costco. IMO, the my kcup insert is just brilliant marketing by Kuerig--and you are a perfect example of how it works. It makes the brewer attractive b/c people think "I don't have to buy the kcups, I can just use my coffee" But, they get some kcups when they buy the brewer, and the convenience and freshness and variety of kcups blows them away and they are a kcup buyer for life. And you fell right into the marketing (as did I in the beginning--except I never even bought the my kcup at all--love the kcups too much)
PS-if you are truly buying, go buy at Costco, the whole bundle--the top of the line platinum brewer, the mykcup insert, and 60 variety of kcups is like $159.00. Then let us know how you and your family likes it--particularly interested in seeing if your wife uses the insert or the kcups. And wait until you have company--each guest can pick a flavor, decaff or regular, tea or cider, etc.
Good response. It certainly does make me more likely to buy (still not going to... not worth the $175 when I program my SBUX to be ready each morning for $.30), but a reasonable perspective. Interesting to know it has always been available. But, as I've said with many things, people change habits and decisions when faced with painful tradeoffs. If we head into recession, it is likely that some significant fraction of the Keurig owners will decide to spend a few more minutes to save a couple hundred dollars a year, particularly those households with less than $75K income per our earlier saturation discussion...