Happyjack, Happyjack...Happyjack...Why do you pose a question about why your obviously long investment in GMCR has taken a nosedive...and then ignore and argue with people that have answers that make sense? You better open that closed mind of yours and stop relying totally on fundamental analysis...
..i point out the flaws in answers that don't make sense, regardless of what their position is, or mine is, for that matter.
it happens that the people whose answers don't make any sense don't seem to comprehend anything i say when i point out their flaws, which i suppose figures.
not much i can do about that.
anyways it turns out the real reason is there was a 1% drop in the average sale price of k-cups last month. found that out myself when the news came out.
so perhaps a better question might be: why do i even bother asking?
0.4% market share loss is BIG. Because when growth stocks no longer have growth, the wall street growth funds are forced to sell, and don't forget GMCR's patent is expiring next year.
More market share loss will be on the way.
Look at how RIMM got hit when the growth rate slowed down this year.
ah ha! here it is!: 1% drop in average sale price of k-cups! that goes directly to the bottom line!
told ya it had to be something else!
not that i'm happy about it...
1% drop in price; I did not realize that had happened too.
This stock is dangerous. They have the machines everywhere and hardly anyone buys them. No sellouts in any store i have seen.
Forget this quarter, what happens next Q. They can't match expectations; obvious.
Come on - open your eyes. This stock sells at 40 times earnings. That's only justified by strong future growth. The company makes its money on k-cups, not hardware. Any indication of less than stellar growth in k-cups and this is a stock priced at 12 times earnings.
you use p.e.g. vs. industry on growth stocks. we're only 50% of that.
also, look at the price targets of professional analysts. if you really think you know more about fundamental analysis than them, then tell me why i don't see your name there.
also, a 0.4% drop in k-cup market share is not an indication of less-than-stellar growth. it's not any indication of sales growth or loss at all! it's mathematically uncorrelated!
its more about bearish technicals than anything. 10day and 20 day moving averages both broken, and soon to have a bearish MACD cross. Along with this there is really no support in the market for GMCR shares until around $30. People are obviously scared.