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Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. Message Board

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  • paulfingspears paulfingspears Apr 13, 2012 9:48 AM Flag

    whoever is complaining about insider sales at GMCR just check out GOOGLE

    Your once again comparing apples to oranges, or in this case googles to coffee.

    Google has a market cap of $212 billion dollars compared to GMCR with 6.7 billion in market cap.

    More direct to your convoluted point, GMCR insiders hold 23% of GMCR stock. Google insider hold less than 1% of Google stock. When insider hold so few of the outstanding shares it is very easy to sell half of those shares. If you still are confused think of it this way; If you have less than 1% of something you might go through 46.4% of that less than 1% much quicker than someone who has 23% of something.

    More simply lets look at # of shares sold in the last 6 months:

    GOOG, 1.17 million shares
    GMCR, 1.43 million shares

    1.17 x GOOG @ $651 per share = 761.67 million bucks

    1.43 x GMCR @ $44 per share = 62.92 million bucks

    Now consider these figures as a percentage of total market cap.

    You have .76 billion out of 212 billion for GOOG = .36%

    You have .063 billion out of 6.7 billion for GMCR = 1%

    And that is a rough example using only todays share price as a base line. If you used the dollar values at the time of these sales the figure would be greater than 1% of market cap. If you go back beyond just 6 month it becomes more alarming.

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    • i really like comparing apples and oranges. this kind of analysis gives a very good perspective on the stock market fashion show.
      Google eps growth rate for 2012__ 18% 2013 growth rate __18% P/E ratio__ 21.34 forward p/e 12.67
      GMCR eps growth rate for 2012__ 63% ___ 2013 growth rate__ 38% P/E ratio__ 22.69 forward p/e 11.95
      which stock is a better buy? you decide.

      • 1 Reply to josefbaikal
      • That is a good point. That is another problem I have with Green Mountain, I do not agree with the forward guidance. I don't think it accurately takes into account the near term risk factors over the next 12 months. I have more faith in the accuracy of Google's guidance. I will watch and wait this year and see the impact of the expiring patents and SEC inquiry. I would not hold GMCR long or short, much to volatile right now, you may easily make a quick buck but you could more easily lose your shirt.

        You also fail to realize that the level of sales is not what is most alarming, but the timing of sales. The largest share dumps were just before earnings were restated, just before einhorns short attack, and just before the SBUX announcement.

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