IF, as Eihorn suggested, the company was manipulating inventory then they may have stopped after his report was made public. That could explain the lower (more honest?) turnover numbers now.
I believe his earnings estimate was $3.50/share vs the bullish estimate of $9.00/share (see pages 65/98). So, it would seem that he would have exited by now or at least cut his position. If it becomes public that he has covered his short it could be a very fierce rally. Though the short interest has cut back significantly it is still very high.
5/15/2012 24,339,607 20,336,396 1.196850
4/30/2012 29,172,063 3,491,717 8.354647
Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/gmcr/short-interest#ixzz1vtHjvYvp
messnevan: I agree with your assessment. GMCR is not a momentum stock. However at 25 it seems almost to be a value stock assuming nothing else is reported going wrong with the company. It seems compelling at 25 based on earnings alone and does seem to be bottoming in the 24/25 area.
The longs here hate Einhorn and most never actually read his report. He suggested (when GMCR was nearly four times the price it is now) that projected earnings growth was greatly exaggerated. He felt a reasonable target might be $3.00/share after several years. If you put a reasonable multiple on $3.00 you could see $35-$45. But all of that goes by the boards if it turns out the numbers from GMCR are wrong or if inventory was being hidden off site, etc. The big consideration here is that this is no longer a momentum stock commanding an absurd multiple. And it will not be one again.
messnevan: last month you posted that GMCR was worth maybey 35, but not 10 nor 100. Do you still think 35 is doable, because if so, a 10 profit may be forthcoming for you and others. Thoughts?
Sam Antar has sixteen years in retail sales, 1971-1986, and three years in prison, 1997-1999, for fradulent practices. I have more than 35 years experience in retail sales and no prison experience for fraud. When you are growing retail sales and attracting new customers with a range of products you have no sales experience to control inventory levels. To keep the loyalty of those new customers you have to maintain high inventory levels accross your entire inventory offering. This results in fewer turns. Once your growth stops you can use your sales history to reduce inventory levels of slower moving and thus increase your overall turns. If Sam had concentrated on developing his business with good practices rather than defrauding investors he might have learned that. If you allow Sam's messages to sway your investments you should remember that he has already been convicted of fradulent practices for his own gain. What assurance do you have that he is not doing the same thing again. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
You are being a little simple about this. As far as I know, no one is currently questioning the accuracy of the inventory numbers themselves. They are concerned about the sizable drop in inventory turnover that the numbers (published by GMCR) indicate.
if you don't have a position, then following the stock with interest is just a load of crap. if the SEC doesn't find any wrong doing, then people should stop with the negative speculation. facts are facts. the company also performs an inventory audit with a reputable accounting firm. they attest to the inventory figures and they issue an opinion each year to the accuracy. So, why don't all of you bashers stop spreading falsehoods? because you are all desperate and pathetic shills for Einwhore.
let the FACTS speak! until SEC says otherwise, STFU!
Why would they post anything for a convicted felon, who said he had no remorse for the pain and suffering he has cost. What does he know about GMCR inventory? He knows nothing about it? He has never worked for the company, that I know of. More lies. More crap to bring down such a good company. Criminal. Oh yeah, he is.
LMAO! They must be getting desperate at einwhores camp. Fellons doing other fellons favors writing "exposee" ondemand. What kind of BS is this, seriously crooked manipulation attempt to keep the PPS down.
I will be laughing next week when the earnings are released, let's see what those crooks come up then or will they have to spin the the same articles for the 10th time! What a joke!